USDA FAS predicts that sunflower production in Ukraine will decrease by 15% in 2026/27 MY

According to the USDA FAS forecast, in the 2026/27 MY, sunflower production in Ukraine will decrease by 15% to 12.8 million tons compared to the previous season, rapeseed production will decrease by 8% to 4 million tons, and soybean production will decrease by 24% to 4.7 million tons.

At the same time, the area under sunflower will increase by 6% to 5.4 million hectares, and under soybeans will decrease by 11% to 1.8 million hectares, but the total area under oilseed crops will be 8.6 million hectares, which will correspond to the average 5-year figure.

Sunflower seed exports in the new season will decrease by 14% to 30 thousand tons, rapeseed by 5% to 2 million tons, and soybeans by 15% to 1.7 million tons.

FAS experts note that in the 2025/26 MY, the volumes of soybean and rapeseed processing in Ukraine increased due to the introduction of export duties on crop prices and a shortage of sunflower against the background of excess processing capacities. And this trend may continue in the future.

Currently, processing capacity in Ukraine (both large and small enterprises) is estimated at 20 million tons per year.

In the 2026/27 MY, Ukraine will increase the volume of sunflower processing by 1.7 million tons to 12.7 million tons, rapeseed by 0.9 million tons to 2 million tons, but will reduce soybean processing by 0.1 million tons to 3 million tons.

Accordingly, sunflower oil production will increase by 15% to 5.5 million tons, rapeseed oil production will increase by 25% to 820 thousand tons, and soybean oil production will decrease by 3% to 551 thousand tons.

Exports of sunflower oil will increase by 0.5 million tons to 5 million tons, rapeseed oil by 84% to 825 thousand tons, and soybean oil will decrease by 4% to 550 thousand tons.

Ukraine will remain one of the world's largest exporters of sunflower oil, and the EU will be the main market for oilseeds and their processed products.