FAS USDA expects China's corn production to increase by 1.7% to 300 million tons in 2025

Experts from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) predict that in the 2025/26 MY, corn production in China will increase by 1.7% from 294.9 to 300 million tons compared to the previous season due to improved yields. Rice and wheat production will also increase.

The Chinese authorities are pursuing a policy of increasing their own production and grain self-sufficiency, maintaining strategic reserves and limiting corn imports by replacing it with cheaper products, including soybean meal, which is changing traditional consumption patterns, FAS notes.

The development of yield improvement programs will lead to a significant increase in genetically modified corn crops in the country by 2025.

In 2024, the Chinese government purchased local grain for reserves: 12 million tons of corn for the 2023 harvest, 35 million tons of corn for the 2024 harvest, and at least 10 million tons of wheat.

In 2025/26, corn consumption is expected to increase from 318 million tons to 321 million tons compared to 2024/25, driven by high demand for poultry feed, while imports are expected to increase by 1 million tons to 8 million tons, 16 million tons below the 2023/24 level. At the same time, ending stocks are expected to decrease by 13 million tons to 182 million tons, driven by higher consumption and lower imports.

Currently, the largest supplier of corn to China is Brazil, and the US share in these imports in 2024 was only 15% and will decrease even more in the new season after the introduction of 15% tariffs on goods from the US.

According to the FAS forecast, wheat production in the PRC in the 2025/26 MY will increase by 1.5% compared to the previous season to 142 million tons due to an increase in sowing areas and better yields, as winter wheat crops, which account for 95% of total wheat production, are in better condition after wintering than last year.

Wheat consumption will be 151 million tons, which will correspond to the level of 2024/25 MY. Over the past 5 years, wheat consumption for food has been stable at 70%, and for feed - it fluctuates from 5% to 20%. According to FAS estimates, in 2025/26 MY 118 million tons of wheat will be used for food, and for feed and residual products - 33 million tons. Wheat imports will increase by 2 million tons to 8 million tons, but will be 5.6 million tons less than in 2023/24 MY.

Demand for wheat flour has fallen for three consecutive years amid an aging population and shrinking labor force. The country's population is also shrinking, falling by 1.39 million people to 1.408 billion in 2024.

Rice production in China in the 2025/26 MY will increase by 1 million tons compared to the previous season to 208.5 million tons due to improved yields, which reached a record high in 2024 and may be even higher in 2025.