UN FAO records decline in grain trade and stocks in 2024/25 MY, but expects stocks to recover in 2025/26 MY

According to experts from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in the 2024/25 MY, world grain production decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous season to 2,853 million tons, primarily due to a reduction in the production of feed crops, especially corn, although rice and wheat production increased slightly.

At the same time, global grain consumption increased by 1.2% to 2,875 million tons due to increased consumption of rice and feed grains (mainly corn and sorghum).

Against the backdrop of increasing consumption and stagnant production, global ending grain stocks in the 2024/25 MY will decrease by 2% compared to the previous season to 865 million tons. Only barley and corn stocks will decrease, while rice and wheat stocks will increase.

The volume of world wheat trade will decrease compared to 2023/24 MY by 6.9% to 478 million tons, while the volume of rice trade will increase.

In the 2025/26 MY, global grain production (including rice in flour equivalent) is projected to increase by 2.1% compared to the current season to a record 2,911 million tons, with corn production growing the most and wheat the least, and rice, sorghum, and corn yields reaching record levels.

Global grain consumption in the 2025/26 MY will increase by 0.8% compared to the previous season to 2,898 million tons, with feed consumption increasing by 0.5% and feed consumption by 0.9%.

Global grain production in 2025/26 MY will exceed consumption, so ending stocks will increase by 1% or 8.3 million tons compared to the previous season to 873.6 million tons, partially offsetting the decline in the 2024/25 season. Feed grain stocks will grow the most, and rice to a lesser extent, while wheat stocks will generally decrease. The ratio of global stocks to consumption will be 29.8%, which will correspond to the 2024/25 MY figure.

The volume of world grain trade, after a decline of almost 7% in 2024/25 MY, will grow by 1.9% to 487.1 million tons in 2025/26 MY, in particular, wheat trade by 3.8% and feed grain trade by 0.9%, while the volume of world rice trade will decrease by 0.7%.