The European Commission has sharply lowered its forecast for the EU corn harvest, but quotes remain low under pressure from the supply of cheap corn from the US, which is affecting prices in Ukraine.

The European Commission has lowered its forecast for the EU corn harvest in 2025/26 compared to previous estimates from 60.1 to 57.6 million tonnes, which will be 3.4% lower than the previous season. The forecast for corn imports to the EU has been increased by 0.5 to 18.8 million tonnes, which will be 6.4% lower than in 2024/25 (20 million tonnes) against the backdrop of increased wheat production in the EU.

The forecast for soft wheat production in the EU in the 2025/26 MY has been increased from 127.3 to 128.1 million tonnes (14.7% higher than last year), but the export forecast has been left at 29.8 million tonnes.

November corn futures on the Paris stock exchange fell by 2.9% in a month to a 1.5-year low of €189/t or $224/t under pressure from active imports of cheap corn from the US and increased wheat production in the EU, part of which will be used as feed due to low quality in the current season.

December corn futures in Chicago rose 2.4% to $165/t over the month, driven by strong exports in the 2024/25 MY and strong export sales for the new season, but remain 6% cheaper than a year ago due to a sharp increase in the US harvest.

According to the USDA, export sales of corn for the 2024 crop are 70.475 million tons (98% of projected exports), and sales of the new crop have already reached 18.775 million tons (out of the projected exports for the 2025/26 MY of 73 million tons).

In September 2025, the Council of the European Union will consider updating the free trade agreement between Ukraine and the EU, which could increase quotas for imports of Ukrainian agricultural products, in particular corn - by 53% to 1 million tons and wheat - by 30% to 1.3 million tons.

It is worth recalling that in the 2024/25 MY, when the duty-free trade agreement with Ukraine was still in effect, the European Union imported 10.9 million tons of corn from Ukraine, which accounted for 55% of total imports, but increased supplies from the USA to 4 million tons and from Canada to 2 million tons.

Forward export prices for corn in Ukraine have dropped to $193-200/t delivered to Black Sea ports and continue to decline amid the lack of active export demand. However, given the high prices for feed crops and meal, we expect a sharp drop in prices in the coming month.