Export prices for Ukrainian wheat are increasing, although stock market quotations for the week fell by 4%

Difficulties with the harvesting of spring wheat in the east of the Russian Federation and the sowing of winter wheat in Ukraine and the southwest of the Russian Federation support the demand for Black Sea wheat, the prices of which remain at $215-225/t FOB, while the prices of French and German wheat exceed $240/ t FOB.

In Ukraine, during the week, export purchase prices for food wheat increased by another 100-150 UAH/t to 9400-9500 UAH/t or $203-205/t, and for fodder - by 150-200 UAH/t to 8700-8900 UAH /t or $185-190/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. They are supported by the growth of the interbank dollar exchange rate and the reduction of offers from manufacturers against the background of active exports.

In 2024/25 MR, as of September 20, Ukraine exported 5.26 million tons of wheat (which is 86% higher than last year's figure of 2.83 million tons), in particular, for September 1-20 - 1.48 million tons of wheat (by 85% exceeds the similar indicator of September 2023).

Dry weather in the east of Ukraine prevents the sowing of winter wheat, so the Ministry of Agriculture has reduced the forecast of the area sown for the 2025 harvest from 4.69 to 4.48 million hectares.

Last week, wheat quotations on world exchanges fell by 4.2-6.4%, losing the growth of the previous week, despite problems with harvesting in the Russian Federation and high export rates from the USA.

In FY 2024/25, wheat exports from the US reached 11.1 million tons, which is 28% ahead of last year's pace and is a 4-year high, and is also 49% of the USDA forecast with a 5-year average of 52%.

The almost 3-month rate of precipitation that fell in the east of the Russian Federation delays the harvesting of spring wheat and may reduce the amount of the harvest.

The Coceral agency reduced the forecast for wheat production in the EU in 2024 by 11.5 million tons to 114.92 million tons, in particular for France - to 26.2 million tons (35 million tons last year), Germany - to 18.4 (21, 3) million tons, Spain - up to 6.5 (3.2) million tons.

December wheat futures rose on Friday:

• by 0.5% to $208.9/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-4.7% for the week),
• by 0.1% to €216/t or $241/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-4.2%).

HRW hard winter wheat futures in Kansas City remained unchanged at $207.23/t (-6.4%) and HRS spring hard wheat futures at $223.4/t in Minneapolis (-4 .4%).

On September 19, the Tunisian grain agency ODC purchased (as planned) 125,000 tons of soft wheat at a price of $245.83-247.83/t C&F and 100,000 tons of durum wheat at a price of $336.5-346.49/t C&F, which confirmed the availability of cheap wheat on the world market.

According to Friday's Commitment of Traders report, traders reduced net short positions in wheat on the Chicago Stock Exchange by 4,364 to 25,033 contracts, and in Kansas City by 1,024 to 17,486 contracts. This indicates that they do not expect a significant speculative increase in wheat prices in the near future.