Export prices for corn in Ukraine have stabilized amid reduced supply

Declining demand for Ukrainian corn from Turkey remains the main factor putting pressure on export prices. At the same time, reduced sales from farmers have halted further price declines at ports.

 

Last week, export demand prices for corn in Ukraine decreased by $8–10/t to $215–218/t or UAH 10,900–11,000/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. This week, prices are maintained at the same level due to limited supply from producers who expect market growth to resume and pay attention to the fact that prices for new crop corn on exchanges remain higher than prices for the old crop.

 

As of June 13, corn exports from Ukraine amounted to 20 million tons. By the end of the 2025/26 MY season (July 1), shipment volumes are likely not to reach the projected 22 million tons, as some farmers are ready to leave transitional residues in anticipation of higher prices.

 

According to White Brokers, an additional negative factor for the market was the situation in Turkey. The country's authorities launched a large-scale investigation into the poultry sector, within which external supervisory administrators were appointed for 13 large companies, and proceedings were opened against a number of managers on suspicion of violating competition law and manipulating prices.

As the poultry sector is one of the largest consumers of corn in Turkey, the market perceived this news as an additional risk to future demand.

 

Some support for prices is provided by the relative stability of corn quotes in Chicago, despite the improvement in world corn balances for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 MYs, favorable weather conditions in the USA and Brazil, as well as a sharp decline in oil prices.

 

Over the past seven days, July corn futures in Chicago have fallen 1% to $163.4/t (-14.5% for the month), while December contracts are trading about $10/t more expensive than July ones.

 

According to NASS Crop Progress, as of June 14, corn planting in the United States was complete and 94% of the area had sprouted, compared to an average of 93%. The share of crops in good and excellent condition increased by 1 percentage point to 68% over the week, compared to 72% last year.

 

In central Brazil, the dry season has ended and rains began last week and are expected to continue. This improves the condition of the second corn crop, so the USDA raised its corn production forecast for Brazil by 3 million tons to 138 million tons, while local analysts estimate a harvest of 140 million tons. For Argentina, the forecast was raised by 2 million tons to 61 million tons, while the local exchange estimates a harvest of 64 million tons.

 

At the same time, the Organization of European Grain Traders COCERAL lowered its forecast for corn production in the EU in 2026 by 3 million tons to 57.2 million tons, which is lower than last year's figure of 57.8 million tons. However, this did not support the European market - corn quotes in Paris decreased by 3.6% to €209.5/ton or $235.4/ton over the week.

 

Demand prices for Ukrainian corn from European buyers also decreased by 3-5 €/t to 193 €/t FCA western border due to increased supply of South American corn. Despite this, the European Union is likely to remain the main buyer of Ukrainian corn in the new season due to faster and more logistically advantageous delivery.