USDA raised corn crop forecasts in Argentina and Brazil and also improved estimates of world stocks, which increases pressure on quotes

In the June WASDE report, USDA experts significantly improved the global corn balance for both the 2025/26 MY and 2026/27 MY seasons. This increased pressure on quotes, which had already lost 15–16.6% over the past month.

July corn futures in Chicago yesterday fell 1.8% to $162.1/t (-16.6% since the May report), and December futures fell 1.7% to $173/t (-14.9%).

November corn futures in Paris lost 0.9% and fell to €205.5/t or $237.7/t (-5.6% since the May report).

Compared to May estimates, the world corn balance for the 2025/26 MY has undergone the following changes:

• the forecast for initial stocks was reduced by 1.8 million tons to 295.98 million tons (313.88 million tons in 2024/25 MY);

• The forecast for global production has been sharply increased by 13.6 million tons to 1,326.67 million tons (1,233 million tons in 2024/25 MY).

Specifically, the USDA raised its crop estimates:

• for Argentina — by 2 million tons to 61 million tons (49 million tons in 2024/25 MY);

• for Brazil - by 3 million tons to 138 million tons (136 million tons).

At the same time, local analysts estimate production at 62–64 million tons and 140 million tons, respectively. Forecasts for India and Paraguay have also been improved, while the estimate for Mexico has been lowered.

The forecast for global corn consumption has been increased by 8.79 million tons to 1,319.29 million tons (1,251.26 million tons), the forecast for global imports by 1.73 million tons to 197.59 million tons (186.2 million tons) due to increased demand from Mexico, Algeria and Egypt.

The forecast for world exports has been increased by 3.4 million tonnes to 217 million tonnes (187.3 million tonnes), in particular for India, the USA, the Russian Federation and South Africa.

As a result, the forecast for world ending stocks was increased by 6.41 million tons to 303.36 million tons (295.98 million tons).

For Ukraine, the harvest and export forecast for the 2025/26 season has been left unchanged at 30.9 million tons and 22 million tons, respectively. For the new season, the estimates have also not been revised and are 30 million tons of production and 23 million tons of exports.

The world corn balance for the 2026/27 MY was also slightly improved, although changes for major producing countries were minimal.

The forecast for initial reserves has been increased by 6.4 million tons to 303.36 million tons (295.98 million tons in 2025/26 MY).

The forecast for global corn production in the 2026/27 MY has been raised by 5 million tons to 1.3004 billion tons, which is 26.29 million tons less than the expected harvest of the current season. The main increase fell on India, where the sown area increased significantly.

The global consumption forecast has been raised by 7.73 million tonnes to a record 1.3225 billion tonnes (1.319 billion tonnes), mainly due to increased consumption in Brazil, Mexico, Egypt and Argentina.

The forecast for world corn imports has been increased by 1.04 million tons to 199.63 million tons (197.6 million tons), and the forecast for world exports has been increased by 0.7 million tons to 207.61 million tons (217 million tons).

The forecast for world ending corn stocks in the 2026/27 MY has been increased by 3.68 million tons to 281.22 million tons (303.36 million tons).

Weather conditions in major exporting countries continue to support high harvests, so a further improvement in the global corn balance is possible in July. Under these conditions, there are no prerequisites for price growth in the coming month.