USDA experts have lowered the forecast for corn exports for Ukraine, although the world balance has hardly changed

USDA experts in the February supply and demand report for the 2025/26 MY slightly increased global forecasts for corn consumption, imports and exports, and also lowered the estimate of global stocks, but quotes in Chicago practically did not react to this.

Compared to January estimates, the world corn balance for the 2025/26 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The forecast for initial reserves has been reduced by 0.35 million tons to 294.35 (315.45 in 2024/25 MY) million tons due to the balance adjustment for 2024/25 MY.
• The global production forecast was reduced by 0.1 million tons to 1,295.9 (1,230.6) million tons, although the forecasts for Brazil and Argentina were left unchanged at 131 and 53 million tons, respectively.
• The forecast for global consumption has been increased by 1.5 million tons to a record 1,301.3 million tons, which will exceed the 2024/25 MY figure by 49.8 million tons.
• The forecast for world exports has been increased by 1.45 million tons to 206.55 (187.14) million tons, in particular for the USA - by 2.54 million tons to 83.82 (72.6) million tons, which compensates for the decrease in exports from Ukraine by 1 million tons to 22 (20) million tons due to delayed deliveries, since only 8.8 million tons of corn were exported in the 7 months of the season (compared to 12.87 million tons last year), so about 13 million tons more need to be exported in the next 5 months, which will be difficult due to significant competition with cheap American corn.
• The forecast for world imports was increased by 1.86 million tons to 192.08 (186.14) million tons, in particular for Iran, Mexico, Turkey, Lebanon and Vietnam, but reduced for the EU.
• The forecast for ending stocks was reduced by 1.93 million tons to 288.98 (294.35) million tons, in particular for the USA - by 2.5 million tons to 54 (39.4) million tons, which compensates for the increase in stocks in Ukraine by 0.8 million tons to 1.65 (0.84) million tons.

March corn futures in Chicago were unchanged after the report and closed at $168.8/t, but are trading 1.7% higher than after the January report.

Corn quotes will remain under pressure from seasonal supply growth in the markets, but in March-April, the speculative factor of uncertainty with corn sowing areas in the US in 2026 will also increase, as current prices at or below cost will encourage farmers to increase soybean areas.

In subsequent reports, we can expect a further decrease in the consumption forecast against the backdrop of a fairly high supply of both feed wheat and meal this season, which will contribute to an increase in global corn stocks and put pressure on quotes until the results of the harvest in South America and sowing in the USA are received.