Experts of Rabobank increased its production forecasts for Australia

2020-10-23 12:08:40
Machine translation
Experts of Rabobank increased its production forecasts for Australia

In the "production Forecast of winter crops in Australia to 2020/21 MG", experts of Rabobank said that after three years of poor harvests, the country will resume production of winter grains and oilseeds to the level of 47.4 mln tonnes, which is 63% higher than the harvest of 2019, and 16% average 5-year average.


Despite the need of recovery of domestic reserves, the country this year, plans to export 19.8 million tonnes of wheat, 5.6 million tonnes of barley and 2.7 million tonnes of canola.


Despite the increase in world wheat stocks in 2020/21 MG 5%, their location outside the main exporting countries to support global prices. Despite the reduction of wheat exports from the EU and Ukraine by 15 million tonnes intensification of sales Australia will retain the balance in the market.


According to experts of the Bank over the next 12 months wheat CBOT will be traded at 580 cents/bushel, which is 12% higher than the price of the corresponding period last year and by almost 40% the cost of 2016/17 MG, when was the last time the harvest of winter cereals in Australia exceeded the average level.


it is Expected that domestic prices will be maintained as the world price, which is 40% higher than the level of the 2016/17 season, and lower than then the dollar. This will allow to keep prices at average 5-year level.



it is Expected that in 2020/21 MG the country will collect the second largest record harvest of barley, which is 19% will yield a crop 2016/17 MG and will be 23% of the total harvest. However, in contrast to 2016/17 MG, the country will not be able to export significant quantities of barley to China, because he imposed duties on Australian barley. Therefore, the main clients are Saudi Arabia, Japan and Thailand, and the prices will compete with the prices of other coarse grains.


According to the forecast, the stocks of barley in Australia this year will grow, with the result that domestic prices will be lower than for wheat.


Canola and legumes.

Despite the increase in the Australian crop rapeseed prices in 2020/21 MG will not change.


Import demand for canola in the EU this year will be close to record a second consecutive poor harvest of rapeseed in Europe. However, Australia will not be able to ensure the market is not GMO Canalou, which gives preference to the EU.


it is Expected that the price of GM canola in Australia to 2020/21 MG will remain high against the background of heated vegetable oil markets and significant demand for GMO rapeseed from China.

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