IGC experts again raised the forecast for world grain production and stocks in 2025/26 MY

In their June report, experts from the International Grains Council (IGC) raised their global grain production forecast for 2025/26 MY by 2 million tons to 2,377 million tons compared to May estimates, which would exceed the current season's harvest (2,313 million tons) by 2.8%. In particular, the forecast for wheat production and stocks was increased by 2 million tons - to 808 million tons (799 million tons in 2024/25 MY) and 264 million tons (270 million tons), respectively.

The forecast for global grain consumption has been increased by 1 million tons to 2,373 million tons, which will exceed the 2024/25 MY indicator (2,336 million tons) by 1.6%, therefore the estimate of transitional global grain stocks has been increased by 1 million tons to 586 million tons, which will exceed the current season's indicator by 4 million tons.

The estimate of world trade has been increased by 2 million tons to 430 million tons (423 million tons in 2024/25 MY) due to increased wheat supplies.

The forecast for global corn production in the 2025/26 MY has been reduced by 1 million tons to 1,276 million tons compared to 1,225 million tons in the current season, and the forecast for global consumption has been increased by 1 million tons to 1,269 million tons (1,244 million tons), therefore the estimate of ending corn stocks has been reduced by 2 million tons to 282 million tons, which will exceed the current season's figure by 7 million tons.

The forecast for global rice production in 2025/26 MY has been increased by another 3 million tonnes to a record 544 million tonnes (541 million tonnes last season) due to increased production by five major producers, and the estimate of ending stocks has been increased by 5 million tonnes to 184 million tonnes (181 million tonnes), with stocks in India approaching 50 million tonnes.

In the 2024/25 MY balance, IGC experts have increased the estimate of corn production, so the forecast for total grain production (wheat and feed grains) for 2024/25 MY has been increased by 3 million tons compared to May estimates to 2,313 million tons. As consumption has increased slightly compared to the previous period, the forecast for ending stocks (the sum of the relevant local marketing years) has been increased by 1 million tons to 582 million tons, which is 24 million tons less than last season. Trade volumes increased by 5 million tons compared to the previous month, mainly due to an increase in the forecast for wheat.