IGC experts again raised the forecast for world grain production and stocks in 2025/26 MY

IGC experts have raised their forecast for world grain production in 2025/26 MY for the third time, now by another 13 million tons, which will be 4.2% or 98 million tons higher than the previous season's figure (2327 million tons) and will be the largest increase since 2016/17 MY. The estimates for wheat and barley have been adjusted the most, as their yields in the main producing countries turned out to be better than expected.

It is expected that compared to the previous season, global corn production will increase by 59 million tons, wheat by 27 million tons, and barley by 8 million tons. Thus, the forecast for wheat production in the 2025/26 MY has been increased from 819 to 827 million tons.

The forecast for global grain consumption has been increased by 5 million tons to a record 2.4 billion tons, which will exceed the previous season by 55 million tons due to increased consumption in the food, feed and industrial sectors.

The estimate of global ending stocks was raised by 12 million tonnes to a 3-year high of 618 million tonnes.

The grain trade forecast has been increased by 2 million tons to 440 million tons, which will exceed the 2024/25 MY figure by 16 million tons, mainly due to increased wheat production.

The forecast for global soybean production has been lowered from the September estimate to 428 million tonnes, which would be in line with the previous season, as increased production in Brazil and elsewhere will be offset by a decline in North America.

The soybean trade forecast has been raised by 2 million tonnes to 187 million tonnes, driven by stronger demand from Asia. The consumption estimate has been raised to a record 430,000 tonnes, while ending stocks have been reduced. Overall, soybean stock forecasts for major producers, including Brazil and Argentina, have been significantly revised down from September estimates.