IGC experts lower grain production forecast for 2024/25 MY

In a January report, IGC experts lowered their forecast for global grain production in 2024/25 MY by 7 million tonnes to 2,305 million tonnes and consumption to 2,335 million tonnes compared to December estimates due to the active use of grain for food and ethanol. The forecast for carryover stocks was reduced by 3 million tonnes to 573 million tonnes, primarily for barley and maize. Global grain trade is expected to increase by 1% to 420 million tonnes, which is 8% lower than in 2023/24 MY, and imports to China will decrease by 40%.

 

Global wheat production in 2025/26 is forecast to increase by 1% from the previous season to 805 million tonnes, which, against the backdrop of a significant increase in consumption, will lead to a reduction in ending stocks. Trade volumes will increase slightly due to increased supplies to Asia.

 

Global soybean production in 2024/25 is forecast to be 420 million tonnes, up 6% from the previous season, as increased harvests in South America and Asia offset reduced harvests in the United States. Consumption and stocks are also expected to reach record levels, while the trade forecast remains unchanged at 180 million tonnes (+1% year-on-year). Major importers will increase purchases and South American soybeans will gain a larger share of the global market.

 

The forecast for world rice production is left at 535 million tonnes (+2% year-on-year). However, due to increased consumption and low opening stocks, ending stocks in the season will decrease by 3 million tonnes. Trade in 2025 will increase by 1% compared to the previous season.

 

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) has declined over the past two months amid falling prices for rice, wheat and soybeans, which was partially offset by higher prices for barley and corn.

 

The IGC GOI wheat sub-index fell 1% amid falling US prices due to weaker global demand, although European and Black Sea wheat prices remained stable.

 

The IGC GOI corn sub-index rose 5% to a 17-month high on a possible disruption to global supplies.

 

The rice sub-index of the IGC GOI index fell 6% in two months under pressure from seasonal supply increases and strong competition among exporters.

 

The IGC GOI soybean sub-index fell 2% as seasonal price declines in Brazil offset rising quotes in the US and Argentina.