The precipitation deficit remains the main factor influencing the grain markets

2020-10-09 12:16:52
Machine translation
The precipitation deficit remains the main factor influencing the grain markets

the Increase in rainfall deficit in the United States, Brazil, Argentina and Russia raised concerns regarding the upcoming harvest of soybeans, corn and winter wheat, while dry weather in the United States and Russia contributes to the harvest.


In the Midwest US dry and warm weather contributes to the harvesting of soybeans and corn. In the next 7-10 days precipitation is not expected, which will allow to finish harvesting soybeans, to speed up the harvesting of corn, and will increase pressure on grain markets.


rainfall in the past few months, aggravated by a shortage of soil moisture in some States, and according to the drought Monitoring in the U.S. state of Iowa, the drought has become extreme. Drought in Kansas, where they grow winter wheat, led to a rise in stock prices on wheat to 5-year high.


Next week on the Southern and Northern plains will remain dry and warm weather, which will facilitate the harvest and sowing of winter wheat. A minimum amount of rainfall increases the risks for winter crops.


Powerful hurricane Delta, close to the Gulf of Mexico, led to the closure of the ports and the increase in oil prices, and the rains that it will bring in the next 5-7 days, stop picking cotton.


In Canada in the coming days will be heavy rains and snow, but most of the spring wheat and canola already threshed.


Drought in the Central and southern regions of Russia, where they grow winter wheat, was one of the factors of rising prices. Due to the dry weather sowing is faster than last year, but the precipitation deficit may adversely affect future harvest. According to the USDA, from August 5 the rainfall in Russia was the lowest in 30 years, and was in Stavropol and Volgograd 20% from the norm, Rostov – 10%, Volgograd – 20%, other parts of the South and Center – up to 40%. Winter crops planted 14.6 million hectares or 76.2% of the planned areas. In the next 10 days here will prevail, dry weather with temperatures of 18-24 degrees, which will lead to further growth in prices for Russian wheat, which has already become more expensive in Europe.


In Europe, a powerful rain Sep overly irrigated soils, which could lead to partial losses of crops of winter wheat. Precipitation will continue for another 10 days and will stop harvesting late crops.


In Argentina a few showers have improved the condition of grain and allowed to start sowing of maize and sunflower, however, the soil moisture deficit remains. Wheat harvest is active, but yields in different regions is 3-8 t/ha depending on the amount of precipitation that passed during the season. So while it is difficult to estimate the final yield.


In Brazil during the week will be rain that will intensify sowing of soybean, which heat and low soil moisture reserves were detained for at least 2 weeks. This greatly affected the prices of soybeans, even though the harvest in the U.S. and increased volume of proposals.


Australia weather helps to ensure a good harvest of wheat, and the predicted rain will improve the condition of the crops. In the November-December data for the wheat harvest in Australia and Argentina, to significantly influence world wheat prices.

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