Precipitation deficits in Canada and Russia remain the main driver of grain prices

2021-08-06 12:16:10
Machine translation
Precipitation deficits in Canada and Russia remain the main driver of grain prices

Last week, weather conditions improved slightly for the development of late crops, especially soybeans and corn in the western United States and corn in the EU and Ukraine. Precipitation in Canada was less than expected. They contributed to the filling of grain, but will no longer affect the forecasts of the canola and spring wheat harvest. Next week, Saskatchewan will once again experience a drought that will further worsen the condition of canola crops and reduce wheat yields.


In the US corn belt last week, warm weather prevailed with periodic rains, which improved the condition of crops. Next week, weather conditions will remain favorable, and additional rains will pass in the north-western regions, which will improve the prospects for the soybean and corn harvest.


Heavy rainfall in the center and north-west of Europe delays the harvesting of early cereals and rapeseed, which reduces the yield of these crops, but improves the prospects for harvesting soybeans, sunflowers and corn. Next week, rain will fall in Germany, Poland and France, which will again hinder harvesting.


The heat wave in southern Europe and Turkey reduces the yield potential of late crops.


In Ukraine, the weather contributes to the harvesting of early crops, and the temperature is 25-30 OhC with periodic rains contributes to the development of corn, soy and sunflower crops.


Traders ' attention is focused on the south of Russia and the Volga region, where the heat is 30-35 OhC without precipitation negatively affects wheat, corn and sunflower crops. Within 5-7 days, high temperatures will remain and there will be no precipitation, which will increase the impact on the wheat and oilseed markets. Although Russian agencies have already lowered their forecasts for the wheat harvest in the country by 2-5 million tons.


In South America, there is still a lack of precipitation, which reduces forecasts for the corn harvest in Brazil, but so far has not affected forecasts for the wheat harvest in Argentina.


In China, more than 300 thousand hectares of crops in June were affected by heavy rains and hurricanes, but in general, the weather contributes to the formation of the crop.


In Australia, favorable weather with heavy precipitation also allows us to hope for a good harvest.

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