Due to the decrease in the harvest, the cost of renting a grain car in Ukraine in 2023 will be a record low

A reduction in grain production, a surplus of grain wagons and significant volumes of grain transportation by motor vehicles will lead to a significant decrease in the cost of renting grain wagons in 2023, according to Yury Shchuklin, a logistics expert and a member of the EBA Logistics Committee.

The main factor in avoiding a hyped demand for wagons with a simultaneous reduction in their supply will be a change in the structure of agricultural production and a reorientation of logistics to other directions and means of transportation, the expert noted.

"As I predicted at the beginning of the year, their owners will lose record revenues from renting grain trucks in 2022 in 2023. And Ukrzaliznytsia will be the most affected by this, whose freight and agricultural base has switched to road transport and is not going to return, as truck owners will try to amortize their expenses. Grain transportation volumes will decrease, regardless of export routes. Therefore, there will be 9-10 thousand cars more than needed for transporting the future harvest. As a result, the daily price of renting a grain wagon will drop to a historically low 500 UAH by the end of 2023," states Yu. Shchuklin.

He believes that the loss of the freight agrarian base will force Ukrzaliznytsia to change the structure of services and the system of price formation. Wagon owners, against the backdrop of a rolling stock surplus, will conclude long-term contracts with farmers, by which grain owners will guarantee the availability of cargo, and wagon owners - the availability of rolling stock at a price fixed for a certain period. This will protect farmers from a possible increase in the financial burden on private wagon fleets from Ukrzaliznytsia.