Rapeseed stock quotes are declining, but export demand in Ukraine remains high

As we predicted, after the elections in Israel and the US, January Brent crude futures fell by 13.5% to $92.5/barrel in a week (-11.4% in a month), losing 20% of speculative growth in 2 weeks, so quotes for vegetable oils and oilseeds came under strong pressure.

 

January canola futures in Winnipeg fell 4% to CAD 757/t or $536/t over the past 7 days (-9.1% month-on-month, but +11.7% year-on-year) under pressure from lower oil prices and favorable weather conditions for the completion of the canola harvest in Canada. However, further declines are limited by the high pace of exports.

 

According to the Canadian Grain Commission, for the week ending November 1, canola exports from Canada increased by 19.7% compared to the previous week to 284.9 thousand tons, and in total since the beginning of the 2026/27 MY amounted to 2.209 million tons, which is 55.2% higher than the corresponding figure for the previous season (1.423 million tons).

 

February rapeseed futures in Paris fell by 4% to €525/t or $587/t during the week (-5.9% month-on-month, but +11.6% year-on-year), but further declines are limited by low import volumes from Canada and Australia. Active rapeseed exports from Ukraine are still covering the needs of EU processors, so demand for Ukrainian rapeseed from the EU will remain high.

 

Demand prices for Ukrainian rapeseed with delivery by dump trucks to the Romanian port of Constanta dropped sharply by $15-20/t to $560-565/t, and with delivery to the Czech Republic - by €10/t to €515-520/t with delivery in November-December.

 

Export demand prices for rapeseed in Ukraine during the week remained at the level of 19,500-20,000 UAH/t with delivery to Odessa and 20,000-21,000 UAH/t with delivery to Danube ports, while prices with delivery to terminals near the western border were 21,000-22,000 UAH/t.

 

Rapeseed exports from Ukraine in October decreased by 11.7% compared to September to 387.4 thousand tons, and the main buyers were Germany (177.8 thousand tons), the Netherlands (67.6 thousand tons) and the Czech Republic (53 thousand tons). Rapeseed oil exports in October decreased by 53% to 72.3 thousand tons, which is equivalent to 150 thousand tons of rapeseed.

 

Oil prices will trade at $85-90/barrel amid the continued Iran blockade and the lack of a ceasefire, so rapeseed prices will remain at their current levels until the start of the canola harvest in Australia in December and new crop data.