Falling oil prices put pressure on rapeseed prices

Last week, January Brent crude futures remained at high levels and even reached $113.4/barrel (+14.8% month-on-month) on expectations of a US and Israeli military strike on Iran. But yesterday, quotes fell 8% to $105/barrel on information that Trump does not want to start military action, but seeks to intensify negotiations with Iran.

 

This sharp drop in oil prices has increased pressure on oilseed quotes. February rapeseed futures in Paris fell 1.7% yesterday to €546/t or $612/t (1.1% for the week and -1.7% for the month), although they are supported by uncertainty with import supplies from Canada (which is still not economically viable) and from Australia, where the harvest has not yet started, but China is actively buying canola.

 

January canola futures in Winnipeg have decreased by 0.8% over the past 7 days to 788 CAD/t or $564/t (-5.7% for the month).

 

Agriculture and Food Canada (AAFC) has increased its forecast for ending canola stocks in the 2026/27 MY by 32% or 475 thousand tons from 1.504 to 1.979 million tons compared to August estimates, and in the 2025/26 MY by 175 thousand tons to 1.9 million tons, which will increase pressure on futures and spot canola prices in the future.

 

Export demand prices for rapeseed in Ukraine during the week remained at the level of $475–500/t with delivery to Danube ports and $500–520/t with delivery to terminals near the western border, but the cost of delivery continues to grow, so domestic prices for rapeseed fell to UAH 17,000–18,000/t on an ex-farm basis.

 

Demand prices for Ukrainian rapeseed with delivery by dump trucks to the Romanian port of Constanta remain at $575–580/t, and with delivery to the Czech Republic and Latvia - at €520–525/t with delivery in November–December, but prices for deliveries in January–February are decreasing.

 

After the elections in Israel and the US, oil prices could fall sharply if military strikes on Iran are abandoned, which will increase pressure on the prices of vegetable oils used to produce biofuels and, accordingly, on rapeseed prices.