Wheat stock quotes have collapsed, increasing pressure on prices in Ukraine

Yesterday, wheat quotes on world exchanges fell by another 1.5–2.2% against the backdrop of a general decline in agricultural futures in the US and the lack of improvement in the trade agreement with China, expectations of which have supported speculative growth in recent months.

 

Wheat prices lost 4.5–6.3% in a week and 7.6–12.8% in a month, gradually giving back the gains since late August. Additional pressure is being created by a favorable global wheat balance and weak demand from importers, who have had good harvests of their own this season.

 

During the week, December futures fell:

• by 5.5% to $253.1/t for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-12.5% per month);

• by 6.3% to $274/t for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (-12.8%);

• by 6.2% to $258.2/t for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-8.7%);

• by 4.5% to €233.25/t or $265/t for soft wheat on Euronext in Paris (-7.6%).

 

Wheat exports from the United States fell 8.6% to 310,600 tonnes between September 17 and 24, down 64% from a year earlier. Since the start of the 2026/27 MY, exports have totaled 6.34 million tonnes, down 34.4% from last year.

 

Wheat exports from the EU reached 6.3 million tons as of September 20, up 2% from last year.

 

Ukraine exported 801 thousand tons of wheat in 25 days of September, compared to 1.52 million tons last year, and since the beginning of the season - 2.486 million tons compared to 4.17 million tons. The main destinations of supplies in September were Algeria - 198.9 thousand tons, Egypt - 151.6 thousand tons, Turkey - 93.3 thousand tons, Italy - 80.2 thousand tons and Spain - 67.2 thousand tons.

 

Wheat exports from the Russian Federation as of September 25, 2026 amounted to about 6 million tons compared to approximately 11.3 million tons a year earlier, i.e. decreased by almost 50%.

 

Thus, Ukraine and the Russian Federation undersupplied about 7 million tons of wheat to the world market in the first three months of the season compared to last year. At the same time, supplies from other major exporting countries did not increase significantly, and exports from the USA even decreased. Therefore, a sharp increase in the supply of Black Sea wheat in the second half of the season may increase pressure on world prices.

 

In Ukraine, the increase in logistics costs to the ports of Poland and Romania continues to put pressure on domestic purchase prices. Feed wheat is traded at UAH 5,300–5,800/t EXW ex-elevator, and food wheat is traded at UAH 6,400–7,000/t, with higher prices offered at elevators in the western regions. Processors buy mainly high-quality food wheat at UAH 6,500–7,000/t with delivery to the mill.

In the Danube ports, export purchase prices for food wheat remained at $170–177/t or UAH 8,500–8,800/t during the week, and for feed wheat at $150–155/t or UAH 7,500–7,800/t.

 

The low sales pace from Ukrainian producers is currently holding back a further decline in port prices, as farmers are more actively selling more expensive oilseed crops or have focused on harvesting late crops and postponed grain sales to later dates.

 

At the same time, large importers in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are postponing some purchases to the second half of the season or are reorienting to supplies from Australia and Argentina, expecting an increase in wheat supply from Ukraine and the Russian Federation.