Analysts again raised the forecast for soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 MY, which increased pressure on quotes in Chicago and prices in Ukraine

September soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday fell by 1.4% to $358.5/t (-3% for the week, -4.5% for the month), and November futures fell by 1.4% to $365.9/t (-2.7%, -3%) under the pressure of uncertainty with exports to China and favorable conditions for soybean planting in the US, but new forecasts of a record harvest in Brazil are increasing pressure on quotes.

Yesterday, Trump announced a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil and a 25% tariff on imports from India, and threatened additional tariffs on China if it continues to buy oil and support Russia, which refuses to stop the war. This increases the risks for US soybean exports to China, especially against the backdrop of increased production in Brazil.

Brazilian agency Datagro forecasts that Brazil's soybean harvest in the 2025/26 MY will reach a record 182.9 million tons, exceeding the 173.5 million tons in the 2024/25 season and significantly exceeding the USDA's forecast of 175 million tons.

Another Brazilian agency, Safras & Mercado, in its first forecast for the Brazilian soybean harvest in 2025/26 MY, expects production at a record level of 179.87 million tons (compared to 171.9 million tons in 2024/25 MY) thanks to a 1.2% increase in area. Brazilian soybean exports are expected to be 104 million tons in 2024/25 MY and 108 million tons in 2025/26 MY (USDA estimates it at 102 and 112 million tons, respectively), while domestic processing is expected to be 57 million tons and 59 million tons.

According to the USDA forecast, China will increase soybean imports to 112 million tons in the new season (106.5 million tons in the 2024/25 MY), and Brazil will increase exports to 112 million tons (102 million tons), while the US will reduce it from 50.8 to 47.5 million tons.

The reduction in US soybean exports to China in the new season will contribute to an increase in soybean supplies from the US to the EU, Egypt, and Turkey, which will increase pressure on Ukrainian soybean prices.

According to the updated forecast of APK-Inform, soybean production in Ukraine in 2025 may decrease by more than 1 million tons due to a reduction in sowing areas. According to the State Statistics Service, the area sown with soybeans in Ukraine in 2025 amounted to 2.08 million hectares, which is 24% lower than the record figure of last year, although the Ministry of Agrarian Policy estimated it at 2.3 million hectares.

The forecast of APC-Inform regarding soybean sowing areas is somewhat more optimistic and amounts to about 2.2-2.25 million hectares, and production is estimated at 5.6-5.7 million tons, which will be 17% or 1.1-1.2 million tons lower than last year's record of 6.8 million tons.

The introduction of a 10% export duty on soybeans from Ukraine, as well as a decrease in export demand and prices at the beginning of the season due to competition with soybeans from the USA and South America, will reduce soybean prices in September to 16,000-17,000 UAH/t with delivery to the plant and ports.