The growth of soybean prices in Ukraine has stopped due to a decrease in export demand

The completion of soybean harvesting in Brazil and Argentina increased the volume of supply on the world market, which led to a decrease in export demand for Ukrainian soybeans and soybean meal and pulp.

Traders have completed soybean purchase programs at ports, so prices remain at $400-415/t or UAH 18,500-19,000/t for GMO soybeans with delivery to Black Sea ports and $460-465/t for non-GMO soybeans with delivery to Danube ports.

Processors buy soybeans with GMOs at UAH 17,500-18,300/t and non-GMO soybeans at UAH 19,200-19,500/t with delivery to the factory, but soon they will start lowering prices due to problems with the export of meal and pulp, since these products are now actively supplied to Europe from the South America. Therefore, farmers should accelerate the sale of soybean stocks.

It will be recalled that the farmers of Argentina and Brazil restrained sales in anticipation of rising soybean prices, so soon they will intensify sales, which will coincide with the rape harvest period and at the same time increase the supply of oilseeds on the market.

According to Argentina's MSG, as of May 1, local farmers have sold 31% of the future soybean crop, which is estimated at 49.7 million tons. This is the lowest sales figure for the specified period since FY 2014/15. As of May 15, soybeans in the country have been harvested on 61% of the area, which is inferior to last year's pace due to heavy rains in April.

On the exchange in Chicago, July soybean futures yesterday fell by 0.6% to $455.3/t (+4.8% for the month), and November - by 0.2% to $446/t (+3 .5%) against the backdrop of a reduction in export sales of soybeans, meal and oil from the USA.

Freight operators lowered their May soybean export forecast from Brazil to 13.83 million tonnes from 14.13 million tonnes, which would be 4% below May 2023, but still exceed the record monthly soybean export volume from the US.

In FY 2023/24 (as of May 16), the US exported 39.75 million tons of soybeans, which is 17.8% less than last year's pace. The low rate of soybean sales will not allow exports to increase in the coming months.

In a May report, IGC experts raised the forecast for global soybean production in FY 2024/25 by 1 million t to 414 million t, and the forecast for ending stocks by 3 million t to 78 million t (due to the adjustment of opening stocks), while the consumption estimate was left unchanged .