Sunflower oil price growth limited by uncertainty in global markets

According to Trading Economics, the average price of sunflower oil delivered to buyers increased by 2.7% to $1,345/t (+3.9% per month) against the backdrop of increased demand, reduced offers from Ukraine, and an increase in the euro against the dollar, which improved demand prices from EU buyers.

 

In Ukraine's Black Sea ports, export prices for sunflower oil increased by $10-20/t to $1,080-1,100/t during the week, but further growth is limited by strong competition with Russian oil, supplies of which are increasing.

 

In the first 5 months of the 2024/25 MY, the Russian Federation increased its exports of sunflower oil by 26% to 2.34 million tons. The largest buyers were India (1.04 million tons) and Turkey (435 thousand tons).

 

India's intentions to increase import duties on vegetable oils are increasing uncertainty in the markets and reducing speculative demand for oils.

 

Malaysia reduced its exports of palm oil products by 12.3-19.9% from February 1-15 compared to the same period in January, amid reduced demand from India, which increased pressure on quotes.

 

April palm oil futures on the Bursa exchange in Malaysia fell 1.1% to 4,542 ringgit/t or $1,022/t in the week, but rose 4% overall in 2 weeks amid the country's lowest palm oil inventories in 21 months.

 

March soybean oil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 0.7% to $1,015/t for the week, matching the previous month's level, but remain under pressure from uncertainty surrounding Trump's decisions on biofuels and the introduction of tariffs.

 

Oil prices remain stable, but they could fall if successful negotiations between the United States and Russia over the war in Ukraine lead to the easing of sanctions against Russia and increased oil supplies. Falling oil prices will reduce the prices of palm and soybean oils, which are used in the production of biodiesel.