The growth of sunflower prices in Ukraine has stopped against the background of falling prices for vegetable oils, but it may soon recover

At the end of last week, purchase prices for sunflower with an oil content of 50% decreased in Ukraine by 300-500 UAH/t to 26,500-27,200 UAH/t with delivery to the factory against the background of a possible decrease in sunflower oil prices following the prices of palm and soybean oil.

At the same time, against the backdrop of a shortage of offers from producers, the premium for high-oleic sunflower increased from UAH 2,000 to UAH 4,000/t during the last month, so its prices reached UAH 30,000-31,000/t with delivery to the plant.

Demand prices for sunflower with delivery to Bulgaria increased by $10-15/t during the week to $620-640/t with delivery in November, which is equivalent to UAH 29,000-30,000/t with delivery to the plant.

During the week, sunflower oil prices in Ukrainian ports increased by another $10-20/t to $1,140-1,160/t amid limited supply, while meal prices fell by $5-6/t to $190-205/t as a result of increasing supplies of soybean, rapeseed and sunflower meal to the world market.

According to Trading Economics, the average price for sunflower oil delivered to buyers for the week fell by $20/t to $1,330/t, but the data is more reflective of the Indian market as EU prices remain at $1,180-1,220/t.

December palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia yesterday fell 3.8% to 4,899 ringgit/t or $1,093/t (-6% for the week). But local traders do not expect further declines due to Thailand's ban on palm oil exports in 2025, as well as increased use of this oil for biodiesel in Indonesia and Malaysia.

December soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose 2.2% to $1,006/t (+7% on the month) in two sessions, as traders began to take profits after falling 8.3% the previous week.

Soybean oil prices are supported by record soybean processing in the US, which reached 5.44 million tons in October against analysts' forecast of 5.35 million tons, surpassing the previous record set in March 2024.

A possible escalation of the war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine will contribute to the increase in sunflower oil prices due to the risks of disruption of supplies from the Black Sea. Against this background, January Brent oil futures rose by 3.2% yesterday to $73.3/barrel (+2% for the week).

China's decision to eliminate tax breaks on waste vegetable oil exports from Dec. 1 will sharply reduce supplies, especially to the U.S., which could boost demand for soybean and canola oil from the biodiesel industry.