The growth of corn prices in Ukraine has stopped against the background of a drop in world quotations

The completion of planting in the US and the improvement in the condition of corn crops in the US and Ukraine increased the pressure on global quotations. This halted price growth in Ukraine, which continues to be supported by a gradual increase in feed wheat export prices.

According to NASS data, as of June 2 in the US, 91% of the planned area was planted with corn (95% last year, 89% on average over 5 years), and 75% of crops are in good or excellent condition (64% last year).

During the week on the exchange in Chicago, July corn futures fell by 3.4% to $172.9/t (-6.6% for the month), and December - by 4.3% to $180.7/t (-6.3%) and now trade 10% cheaper than last year. We will remind that in June 2023, against the background of unfavorable weather, prices reached $220/t, but during the season they decreased under the pressure of low export demand.

On the Euronex exchange during the week, August corn futures fell by 1.6% to €223.25/t or $243.4/t (+7.6% for the month), and November - by 2.8% to €221.5/t (+5.5%).

According to the European Commission, in 2023/24 the pace of corn imports to the EU decreased compared to the previous season by 32% to 17.1 million tons (about the USDA forecast of 321 million tons), of which 11.6 million tons were supplied from Ukraine . Spain imported 7 million tons of corn, the Netherlands - 2.3 million tons, Italy - 2 million tons.

In Ukraine, as of May 31, 3.9 million hectares or 97.5% of the planned areas were sown with corn. The recent rains will improve the condition of the crops, and the low temperatures in the next 7-10 days will promote plant development.

Purchase prices for corn, after a decrease last week, recovered again to $182-185/t or UAH 8,300-8,400/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. They are supported by the increase in feed wheat prices by another $8-10/ton to UAH 9,100-9,300/ton, caused by the rise in food wheat prices to $210-215/ton.

In 2023/24 MR (as of June 3), Ukraine exported 26.6 million tons of corn (27.1 million tons on this date last year), against the USDA forecast of 26 million tons. By the end of the season, there is an opportunity to export another 1.5 million tons corn, which will significantly reduce final stocks.

In the near future, prices may be supported by data on corn harvest in Brazil and Argentina. As of May 30, second-harvest corn in Brazil has been harvested on 4.7% of the area (1.4% last year), and the AgRural agency lowered its 2023/24 harvest forecast to 118.4 million tons, which will be significantly lower than the USDA forecast of 122 million tons and 137 million tons collected last year.