The increase in world prices for corn supports purchase prices in Ukraine

So far, the main factors supporting corn prices have been dry weather during planting in South America and reduced yields in Ukraine and the Russian Federation. But this week they were joined by a speculative rise in wheat prices caused by the worsening situation in the Middle East.

 

This week, export demand prices for corn in Ukraine increased by another 2-5 $/t to $192-196/t or UAH 9,000-9,100/t with delivery to Black Sea ports against the backdrop of an increase in feed wheat prices to $195-198 /t and the growth of stock market quotations by 3.4-4.6%. Processors raised prices to 8,200-8,600 hryvnias/t with delivery to the factory in order to purchase the required volumes, but farmers are restraining sales because they are busy harvesting and sowing winter crops.

 

As of October 3, 7.6 million tons of corn were threshed from 1.48 million hectares or 37% of the area in Ukraine with a yield of 5.14 tons/ha (6.25 tons/ha last year).

 

In FY 2024/25 (as of October 2), Ukraine exported 2.85 million tons of corn (2.69 million tons in the same period last year), but export volumes remain low, although the pace of harvesting is significantly ahead of last year due to dry weather.

 

In Brazil, as of September 27, due to dry and hot weather, only 31.4% of the area was sown with first-harvest corn (36.6% last year), and 2% with soybeans (4% last year). Late planting of soybeans may delay planting of second-crop corn and result in reduced acreage.

 

December corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 4.4% for the week amid rising oil prices and weather in Brazil, but yesterday fell 1% to $168.6/t (+3, 9% per month).

 

At the same time, November corn futures on the Paris exchange increased by 4.6% for the week to €216.25/t or $238.5/t (+6.9% for the month).

 

In 2024/25 MR (as of September 29), the EU increased corn imports compared to the previous season by 13% to 5.16 million tons, of which 2.58 million tons were supplied from Ukraine, 914 thousand tons from the USA, 836 thousand tons - from Brazil.

 

In the USA, on September 29, corn was harvested on 21% of the area, and dry and warm weather in the coming weeks will allow to speed up harvesting.

 

StoneX raised its forecast for US corn yield to 11.54 t/ha and production to 386.4 million tons, while the USDA estimated the September crop at 385.7 million tons.

 

The European agency MARS expects that the corn harvest in the Russian Federation will decrease by 24% compared to last year to 13.8 million tons, and local agencies estimate it at 12 million tons. This leads to an increase in prices for Russian corn, which is currently offered at 190 $/t FOB, while Ukrainian trades at $210/t, American - at $200-207/t, Argentinian - at $195-197/t.