The growth of the crop forecast in Australia and the increase in supply reduce the price of wheat

2020-07-21 12:06:51
Machine translation
The growth of the crop forecast in Australia and the increase in supply reduce the price of wheat

Favorable weather prevailed in the US for wheat and maize continues to put pressure on the wheat prices on the stock exchanges and the increase in the crop forecast in Australia was an additional pressure on the quotes. Yesterday, wheat prices on world markets started the week with a sharp decline by 1-3%.


against the background of reduction of prices on the Grain exchanges Agency of Egypt GASC today will hold the third tender in July for the purchase of at least 55-60 thousand tons of soft milling wheat with delivery from 21 to 31 August 2020.



Foreign service of the Department of agriculture (FAS USDA) after 10 days after the release of the July report of the Department of agriculture (USDA) increased the forecast of wheat production in Australia by 1 million tonnes to 27 million tonnes in 2020/21 MG. It 77,6% more production of season 2019/20 and 14% more than the average production for 10 seasons. The reason for the Outlook revision was the further improvement of weather conditions in the Eastern States of Australia in July. The forecast of wheat exports from Australia is 17.5 million tonnes, which is 90% more export season 2019/20 and 4.1% more than the average of export in 10 seasons.


Wheat area of Paris on Monday accelerated the rate of decline. Factors pressure were two. First to 4-month high the Euro strengthened. Second, the yield of wheat in the North of France was significantly higher than expected (although the protein content in the grain and dropping).

September quotes milling wheat on the Paris stock exchange MATIF fell by €3.00-181,75 €/t (208,31 $/t).


Bidding ended Monday for Chicago care deeply in the “red zone". The main strike caused a sharp strengthening of the dollar, which has export attractiveness of American grain. The winter wheat harvest in the United States is made on 74% of the area compared to 75% average over 5 years, and the condition of spring wheat during the week has improved slightly due to precipitation and 68% of crops is estimated as good to excellent compared with 76% last year.

wheat Exports from the U.S. last week fell by 24% and amounted to 500,6 thousand tons, while total exports from the beginning of the season by 5% ahead of last year and reach 3.5 million tons.

September quotes of the American wheat have decreased:


  • soft Wheat SRW in Chicago for $191,80 of 4.68 to $/t;
  • the
  • hard Wheat HRW in Kansas city $5,05 to 159,83 $/t;
  • the
  • hard Wheat HRS in Minneapolis by $2,30 to 186,10 $/t

futures for black sea wheat on the stock exchange in Chicago has also dropped by 1% to 207$/MT for the September contracts and 1.2% to 213,5$/t for December.



Prices of Russian wheat protein 12,5% remain at 209-211$/t FOB with delivery in August and September, while prices for Ukrainian milling wheat continued a slight increase to the level 205-208$/t FOB amid falling yields in the Central part of Ukraine.

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