Export growth decline in imports is strengthening the hryvnia on the interbank market

2020-11-09 12:02:42
Machine translation
Export growth decline in imports is strengthening the hryvnia on the interbank market

Last week as a result of exceeding of foreign currency supply over demand, the hryvnia strengthened from 28.6 to 28.12/28,15 UAH/$. The increase in the number of infected Covid-19 in Ukraine may lead to the strengthening of the quarantine, therefore, importers do not expect an increase in consumption.

 

the national Bank within the day acquired about $ 20 million at the rate 28,09 UAH/$, and then tried to buy back the currency at 28,07 UAH/$, but given the very low level of quotations of the currency, the regulator is never sold. At the beginning of last week to curb the devaluation of the hryvnia, the NBU sold on the interbank market of 70 million $, but on Thursday and Friday acquired 41 million $. The national Bank purchased foreign currency on the interbank market for the first time since mid-September, reflecting the stabilization of the exchange rate. Since the beginning of the year, the regulator has acquired gold reserves 4.55 billion $ and sold 3.8 billion $.

 

the Main reason for the appreciation is the increase in volume of export against reduction of imports. In October, export of goods increased in comparison with October 2019 1.3% to 4.6 billion $, while imports decreased by 15.7% to 4.98 billion $. Thanks to the negative balance of foreign trade decreased to 0.38 billion $ compared to 1.34 billion $ in October 2019, Significantly increased the export of goods to China – just 88% or 2.6 billion dollars.

 

Additional factor of strengthening of the hryvnia has been the growth of budget revenues. According to the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Smagala, in October, the state budget performed at 110%, and within 10 months 2020 to 99%. Compared to October last year, the state budget revenues grew by 8.5% to 77.2 billion, while VAT refunds declined by 10.7%.

 

Experts predict that within a week the dollar on the interbank market remains at 28-28. 2 UAH/ USD, as the factors of the further strengthening do not exist.

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