The drop in world corn quotations to a 3-year low stopped price growth in Ukraine

Yesterday on the Chicago Stock Exchange, March corn futures fell 1.3% to the lowest level since December 2020 at $179.1/t (-6% for the month) on the back of better weather in Brazil and weak export rates from the US.

Brazil exported 6.1 million tons of corn in December, which is almost equal to the 6.24 million tons exported in December 2022. In January, the country plans to ship another 3.3 million tons of grain, which will increase competition with sellers from the United States and Ukraine, especially in the Chinese market.

In 2023/24, the US MR exported 12.8 million tons of corn, which is 28% higher than last year's pace, but the export forecast for the current season is also 26% higher than in the previous one. To export the USDA forecast of 53.3 million tons, 5 million tons of corn must be shipped each month, although grain exports averaged only 3.2 million tons in the first 4 months of the season.

From July 1 to December 31, Ukraine exported 9.4 million tons of corn, which is 32% less than last year's pace, but the export forecast for the current season is 28% lower than in the previous one, which is due to increased competition on the world market and reduced supplies to the EU. Against the background of reduced exports and increased production, the final stocks of corn in 2023/24 MR may grow to 6.8 million tons compared to 2.8 million tons in 2022/23 MR.

Traders expect the new report by USDA experts to adjust estimates of acreage to harvest, yields and corn production for the US, but this will not significantly affect the global balance.

In Ukraine, export demand for corn remains at a high level, and the drop in the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar by 4% for the month led to an increase in hryvnia prices to UAH 6,450-6,550/t, while prices in dollars are $155-158/t with delivery to Black Sea ports and $165-170/t with delivery to Danube ports.