Lower forecast for wheat production and stocks in the United States will support quotes

USDA experts in their quarterly report lowered their estimate of Final stocks and wheat production in the United States in 2020/21 MG more than analysts expected, which will be a new factor in supporting prices.

Wheat stocks in the United States as of September 1, 2021 were estimated at 48.44 million tons, which is 18% lower than on September 1, 2020 and 4% lower than analysts ' forecasts.

According to the forecast, wheat production in the United States in 2020/21 MG will amount to 44.9 million tons, which is 10% lower than the 2020/21 mg harvest, 5% lower than analysts ' forecasts and 3% lower than the USDA September report.

Despite a year - over-year increase in wheat sowing areas in the United States in 2021 by 2.1 million acres to 46.7 million acres, drought yields decreased from 49.7 to 44.3 bushels/acre, or 2.98 t/ha, and pre-harvest areas-to 37.2 million acres (36.8 million acres last year).

December US futures rose yesterday:

• by 5 5.6 / ton to Чикаго 266.6/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 7 7.35 / ton to H 268.9/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 3 3.3/ton to.335.3 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

Export sales of wheat from the United States for the week fell by 22.7% to 290.1 thousand tons, and in general in the season reached 11 million tons. wheat exports from the United States for the week decreased by 27% to 368.87 thousand tons, which is 19% lower than the average of the last 4 weeks. A total of 7.2 million tons have been exported since the beginning of the season, which is 22% lower than last year's pace.

Yesterday, the China National Reform and Development Commission set a quota for wheat imports for 2022 at 9.636 million tons, which corresponds to the level of the previous season.

December wheat futures rose even more yesterday:

• on Black Sea wheat on Chicago SWOT - by 1 1.75 / ton to 3 318.75 / ton,
• for European on Paris Euronext-by 2 €/T to 258 €/t or 298.7 $/t.

The start of wheat harvesting in Australia and Argentina amid falling corn prices will increase pressure on feed wheat prices in the near future, which will accordingly affect food wheat quotes.