The decrease of the production forecast has supported stock prices for wheat

2019-07-12 12:03:31
Machine translation
The decrease of the production forecast has supported stock prices for wheat

In the July report USDA the balance sheet of wheat in 2019/20 Mr is reduced, however, they exceeded the previous season.


the Forecast of world wheat production decreased by 9.37 million tonnes to 771,46 mln t, in particular for Russia to 3.8 million tonnes, the EU – 2.5 million tons, Canada – at 1.2 million tons, Ukraine – 1 million tonnes, Australia at 500 thousand tonnes for the US production Outlook has increased to 500 thousand tons, Kazakhstan – 200 thousand tons.


Evaluation of the initial stocks of wheat in the world reduced by 1.4 million tonnes to 275,15 million tonnes mainly thanks to USA, India and South-East Asia.


the Forecast of wheat exports from Russia decreased by 2.5 million tons, Australia – 1 million tons, Ukraine – 500 thousand tons, while for the US it increased by 1.37 million tons and the EU – on 0,5 million t


wheat Consumption will be reduced in Russia by 1 million tonnes, the countries of Southeast Asia and Australia by 0.5 million tons, Ukraine – 0.3 mln t and in Canada by 0.2 million tons, but will increase in India of 1 million tonnes and the United States-0.28 million tons.


the Estimate of world ending stocks of wheat in 2019/20 Mr reduced by 7.88 million tonnes to 286,46 million tonnes, which is historically a record. Ending stocks will be reduced in the EU by 2.8 million tons, USA – 1.94 million tons, India – 1.65 million tons, Canada – 1.1 million tons, Russia and China – 0.3 million tons, Ukraine – 0.19 million tonnes, the countries of Southeast Asia – 0.18 million tons.


New report USDA has become an explosive market which drew attention to the reduction of production in countries that are major competitors in the US. Added optimism the increase in wheat exports from the United States.


the July wheat futures in the U.S. fell:

by 7.35 $/t to 169,48 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city

by 4.59 $/t to 196,58 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

  • 9.00 $/t to 197,03 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago