The decrease of the production forecast for Germany has raised prices to a new high

2018-08-02 12:09:53
Machine translation
The decrease of the production forecast for Germany has raised prices to a new high

Yesterday the Association of German farmers (DBV) reduced the forecast of grain production in 2018 by 20% to 36 million tons due to the extreme heat, which in may was the strongest since 1881. The production of wheat in Germany, which is the second after France grain producer in the EU, will be reduced by 25% to 18 million tons.


  • influenced by the new forecast of the September futures milling wheat in Paris rose by 5 €/t to 207,25 €/t or 241,73 $/t and has updated the max for the last 3.5 years.


the U.S. market was moving yesterday following the European, but the growth is limited poor export demand for wheat.


the September wheat futures in the U.S.:

by 2.66 $/t to 207,14 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city

0,64 $/t to 223,40 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

  • 1.65 $/MT to 205,12 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago


With the support of European exchanges, prices for black sea wheat grew 224-230 $/t FOB for shipments in September-October.


In Russia as of August 1, threshed only 38.3% of crops of winter and spring wheat, which contains 38.2 million tonnes with a yield of 3.67 t/ha against 4,42 t/ha in 2017.


In Ukraine on that date with 81% of the area harvested 18.4 million tons of winter wheat with a yield of 3.53 MT/ha, and 16% of the area harvested for 77.6 mln t of spring wheat with a yield of 2.52 t/ha.


grain Export from Ukraine in July was 9.4% less than last year and amounted to 2,214 million tons, in particular:

barley – 592 thousand tons,

corn – 686 thousand tons.

  • wheat – 930 thousand tons,