The decrease in the forecast of world oil demand from OPEC increases the pressure on quotations

For the fourth month in a row, OPEC has lowered its forecasts for the growth of oil demand for 2024, which indicates a slowdown in the development of major consumer economies, in particular China, India and some African countries, Bloomberg reports.

According to OPEC's new forecast, in 2024 world oil demand will grow by 2% or by 1.8 million barrels/day, which is 107,000 barrels/day less than previously forecast.

Since July, OPEC has lowered forecasts for the growth of oil demand by almost 18%, which was confirmed by a sharp drop in prices. But the cartel's forecasts remain significantly more optimistic than those of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Saudi Aramco and UK banks.

Oil prices have fallen 18% since July to $72/barrel as the market believed that conflicts in the Middle East would not disrupt oil supplies and focused on China's economy, where domestic problems have been dampening oil demand for months. Future oil demand forecasts will depend on the actions of Trump as president, who has previously imposed trade tariffs on China and sparred with OPEC members, including Iran.

At the meeting of OPEC on December 1, plans to increase production, which was supposed to start in October, but has been postponed twice, will be reviewed. At the same time, Kazakhstan reduced production by 292,000 barrels/day in October, which is slightly below the agreed quota. Iraq and the Russian Federation also adjust their production in accordance with the agreements.

According to OPEC's forecast, global oil consumption will average 104 million barrels/day in 2024, and will grow to 105.5 million barrels/day in 2025, which is 103,000 barrels/day less than previously forecast.

OPEC's competitor, the International Energy Agency (IEA), will publish its assessment of the global oil market this week. It is expected to emphasize the transition of transportation from fossil fuels to electricity, which will further slow the growth of oil demand in the future.