A decrease in the forecast for wheat sowing areas in the US supported stock quotes

Unexpected for the market data from the NASS USDA report on sowing areas in the US led to an increase in wheat quotes on world exchanges by 1-1.9%.

 

According to the Prospective Plantings report released on March 31, in 2025, the area sown to all types of wheat in the United States will decrease by 2% compared to 2024, from 46.1 to 45.4 million acres, which will be the second lowest figure since 2019, while analysts estimated them at 47 million acres in February and 46.5 million acres in March. At the same time, the area sown to winter wheat will decrease by 0.6 million acres to 33.3 million acres, spring wheat - by 0.5 to 10 million acres, durum - to 2 million acres.

 

May wheat futures rose yesterday:

• by 1.6% to $197.3/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-1.9% per month, -19% per year),
• by 1% to $204.7/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-0.5%, -17%),
• by 1.9% to $217.5/t – for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-0.1%, -16.6%),
• by 0.7% to €220.25/t or $238.5/t – for wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris (-3.9%, -4%).

 

The USDA report on quarterly stocks in the US showed that as of March 1, they amounted to 33.75 million tons (with analysts' expectations of 33 million tons), which was 14% higher than last year's figure and increased pressure on quotes.

 

Wheat exports from the US decreased by 10.2% to 435.6 thousand tons in the week of March 21-27, and in total for the season reached 17.29 million tons, which is 16.4% ahead of last year's pace.

 

Forecasts of precipitation in the wheat-growing regions of the US and improved crop conditions in the main producing states limit the growth of quotes.

 

During the week, the number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition in Texas increased by 5% to 26%, while in Kansas it remained at 49%.

 

In Ukraine, export demand prices for wheat fell by another 50-100 UAH/t yesterday to 10,500-10,600 UAH/t or $220-224/t for feed wheat and to 10,550-10,900 UAH/t or $226-232/t for food wheat.

 

Markets are awaiting the Trump Administration's imposition of tariffs on April 2 and the reaction to them from other countries.