The decrease in the forecast of wheat sowing area in the USA did not prevent the quotation from falling

Data from the USDA's quarterly reports on planted area and stocks of old crops in the US again diverged from analysts' estimates. US farmers, despite large stocks and low prices for corn, still increased the area under corn, reducing the area under wheat, which surprised traders.

NASS USDA experts lowered their estimate of the U.S. wheat planting area by 0.258 million acres to 47.24 million acres (49.6 million acres in 2023 and 45.8 million acres in 2022) from their March and June forecasts, although analysts expected their increase to 47.67 million acres. Winter wheat will be planted on 33.8 million acres, spring wheat on 11.27 million acres, and durum wheat on 2.165 million acres.

Wheat stocks in the USA as of June 1 amounted to 19.1 million tons (according to analysts' estimates of 18.6 million tons), which was 23% higher than last year's 15.5 million tons.

July wheat futures fell yesterday:

• by 1% to $203.6/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-1% for the week),
• by 0.6% to $217.5/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+1.3%).

At the same time, HRS hard wheat futures in Minneapolis rose by 0.3% to $225.3/t (0%).

September wheat futures on the Paris Euronext fell 1.1% to €224.75/t or $241.7/t (0%) on Friday.

The European Commission increased the forecast for the wheat harvest in the EU in 2024/25 FY to 121.9 million tons (125.6 million tons in 2023/24 FY) and exports in 2023/24 FY to 33 million tons.

In France, the number of wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 2% to 60%, according to FranceAgriMer.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that as of June 26, 81% of the 6.3 million hectares planned for 2024/25 were sown with wheat in Argentina.

SovEkon experts reduced the forecast for wheat exports from the Russian Federation in 2024/25 MR by 1.7 to 46.1 million tons, as the harvest will decrease to 80.7 million tons. Strong heat in the spring wheat growing regions in Siberia and the Volga region can significantly reduce the potential of the harvest .