The decline in the forecast of exports from Russia and world stocks led to an increase in wheat prices

2021-10-07 13:47:32
Machine translation
The decline in the forecast of exports from Russia and world stocks led to an increase in wheat prices

Wheat prices on global stock exchanges received new support factors and accelerated growth, especially in Europe, where corn prices rose significantly due to the delay in harvesting.

 

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture lowered its forecast for grain exports from the country in 2021/22 MG from 51 to 45-48 million tons, in particular wheat – from 37.6 to 32 million tons, which gave a boost to quotations, especially after a lower production forecast and a likely decrease in the estimate of wheat exports from the United States in the October USDA report.

 

Analysts expect that in the new report, USDA experts will lower the forecast of global wheat reserves from 283.2 to 281 million tons compared to September estimates,although traders estimate them at 278-284.5 million tons.

 

December US futures rose:

  • by 0 0.46 / ton to Чикаго 274.1/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
  • by 1 1.47 / ton to H 273.7/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
  • by 4 4.96 / ton to.345 / ton for hrs durum wheat in Minneapolis.

 

European wheat is rising in price after neighboring corn and rapeseed markets.

 

  • December wheat futures on Paris ' Euronext rose 5.5 €/ton to 268.25 €/ton or 3 309.9 / ton.

 

At the tender in Egypt, Romanian wheat was the cheapest, but the volume of its offers is decreasing, so most of the wheat purchased was Russian. Recall that the Egyptian GASC yesterday at the tender purchased 180 thousand Russian and 60 thousand tons of Romanian wheat for delivery on November 11-20 at an average price of F 320.51/ton FOB or 3 351.6/ton C&F, which is 7 7.42/ton FOB and C 6.67/ton CFR higher than at the previous auction on September 8.

 

  • At the end of the tender, December Black Sea wheat futures at the Chicago SWOT rose by 2 2.2/ton to.323/ton.

 

In Ukraine, purchase prices for food wheat in ports increased to 8800-8850 UAH/ton or 292-294 $/ton, while for feed wheat remain at the level of 8150-8300 UAH/ton.

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