Lower forecasts for sunflower production in Russia support purchase prices in Ukraine
The low yield of sunflower seeds in the southern regions of Russia and in the Volga region at the beginning of the harvesting campaign, due to the August heat, forces analysts to lower production forecasts, which keeps purchase prices at a high level.
Experts of APK-Inform reduced the forecast of the sunflower harvest in Russia by 9% compared to previous estimates to 15.2 million tons, which is still 13% higher than last year's figure, although recently the USDA estimated the harvest at 15.5 million tons. the main reason analysts called the lowest yield at the start of harvesting in the last 5 years, which is 1.6 t/ha.
Icarus agency lowered its forecast for the gross sunflower harvest to 15 million tons.
In Russia, as of September 14, 1.9 million tons of sunflower were threshed from 1.2 million hectares or 12.5% of the area with a yield of 1.58 t/ha (1.65 t/ha last year). The pace of harvesting corresponds to last year, and the total harvest will depend on weather conditions during harvesting.
In Ukraine, the weather promotes sunflower harvesting, but a delay in the development of crops for 10-14 days leads to a slow drying of sunflower heads, which delays harvesting.
Against the background of an increase in the volume of offers, purchase prices for sunflower slowed down and stabilized at the level of 18000-18500 UAH/ton with delivery to the plant. However, precipitation, which is expected over the next 3-5 days, will again delay harvesting and force processors to raise prices to attract volumes.
The rise in oil prices supports vegetable oil prices, which will also contribute to an increase in purchase prices for sunflower. Prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil rose to F 1,300/ton FOB, although analysts predicted a seasonal decline to 1 1,100 -- 1,200/ton FOB.
For most crops, there is no seasonal supply pressure during harvesting this year, as producers have sufficient finances and are in no hurry to sell their products in anticipation of further price increases.
