Lower soybean production forecasts in Brazil support oilseed prices

As soybean harvesting accelerates in Brazil, the market receives more and more data on crop prospects. Local agencies continue to lower production forecasts, which accelerates the growth of global soybean prices.

According to the agencies Safras and Mercados, soybeans in the country are harvested on 11.3% of the area, which is 1.4% higher than last year's pace. In particular, in the state of Mato Grosso, it is collected on 31.8% of the area, compared with 4.7% last year and 16% on average.

Brazil's AG Rural downgraded its soybean crop estimate from 133.4 million tons to 128.5 million tons compared to the previous forecast, although the USDA estimated it at 139 million tons in January.

AgResource also lowered its forecast for Brazil's soybean harvest from 131 million tons to 125 million tons (138 million tons last year).

March soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange on the background of a rise in the price of palm oil yesterday rose by 1.4% to 5 546/ton, adding 8.4% of the price for the week.

During January 21-27, soybean exports from the United States increased by 4.5% compared to the previous week to 1.411 million tons, and in general in the season reached 36.276 million tons, which is 30.8% lower than last year's pace. Traders hope that against the background of a reduction in the harvest in Brazil, the United States will step up soybean exports, especially to China, and actively buy futures.

Amid rising oil prices and restrictions on exports from Indonesia, March palm oil futures on the Malaysian stock exchange rose yesterday to a record 5,700 ringgit/ton, or.1,362/ton, adding 15% of the price in two weeks.

March soybean oil futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange declined slightly yesterday after rapid growth, but remain at a high level of 1 1,435/ton, adding 10.7% of the price in two weeks, supported by the palm oil market.

In Ukraine, export prices for soybeans with GMOs for the week increased in ports by 1 10-15/ton to 5 535-545/ton, but Hryvnia prices remained at the level of UAH 17,000-17,300/ton due to the strengthening of the hryvnia exchange rate. Processors actively competing with exporters raised prices by another 200-300 UAH/ton to 17000-17200 UAH/ton with delivery to the plant.

Prices for non-GMO soybeans remained at the level of 6 635-650/ton or 20500-20700 UAH/ton with delivery to the port or border, and 20200-20500 UAH/ton with delivery to the factory.

Prices for Ukrainian sunflower oil still remain at F 1,400/ton FOB, but experts expect them to grow in the near future following neighboring markets and against the background of increased demand.

Purchase prices for sunflower seeds in Ukraine increased at factories to 20400-22500 UAH/ton, depending on the oil content, but producers continue to restrain sales in anticipation of rising prices.