Decline in EU rapeseed and US soybean crop forecasts boosts rapeseed prices

Soybean quotes rose 7% in two sessions after the USDA cut its estimate of U.S. soybean acreage by 1.62 million hectares. Following them, stock exchange prices for rape rose by 5.5%, receiving additional support from the report of the consulting company Strategie Grains, which, due to dry conditions in the north of the EU, reduced the forecast for the rape harvest in the EU in 2023 by 600 thousand tons to 18.8 million tons , which will still exceed last year's 19.2 million tons.

At the same time, Strategie Grains increased the forecast of rapeseed imports from Ukraine to the EU, given the high profitability of its processing, especially in Western European countries.

On the exchange in Paris, August rapeseed futures yesterday rose by another 2.4% to €460/t or $501/t (+5.5% for two sessions, +4% for the week, +8.6% for month).

Significant stocks of old-crop rapeseed and oil from it in the EU are putting pressure on the market, especially the physical one, since most factories are supplied with raw materials for processing until September.

November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange were up 3.8% in two sessions to CAD736/t or $555/t (+2.2% for the week, +16.8% for the month). An increase in Canadian canola acreage and improved weather conditions are boosting production prospects, so Canadian canola supplies will increase sharply in the fall.

In Ukraine, rapeseed purchase prices remain at a low level of 330-340 $/t for deliveries to the Danube ports, while prices for deliveries to the Baltics increased by 10-20 €/t to 400-405 €/t, and for deliveries to Romania - by $10/t to $380-390/t. Demand prices for deliveries to Germany are 410-430 €/t, but with the condition of delivery only in September - October.