Lower import forecasts for China lower corn prices

Exchange prices for corn continue to fall as speculative demand decreases amid an improvement in the state of crops in South America and a prolonged decline in wheat prices. In Ukraine, they are also under pressure from a drop in demand in the physical market due to the weekend in China.

An additional factor in the fall in prices today will be a decrease in the forecast of corn imports to China.

The USDA representative in China lowered the forecast of corn imports to the country in 2021/22 MG by 6 million tons to 20 million tons compared to 30 million tons in 2020/21 MG.

According to the USDA, export sales of corn from the United States to China in the current season amounted to only 12.44 million tons, of which 3.47 million tons were shipped as of January 27.

During January 20-27, export sales of corn from the United States increased to 1.175 million tons, and in general in the season amounted to 45.12 million tons, which is 20% lower than last year's figure. Corn exports for the week decreased by 19% to 1.166 million tons, and in general in the season reached 19.6 million tons, which is 2.3% less than last year.

The volume of ethanol production in the United States increased from 1.035 to 1.041 million barrels, but ethanol reserves also increased by 1.378 million tons to 25.854 million tons, which is the highest level in recent months.

March corn futures in Chicago fell to два 244/ton in two days, losing growth on Monday, but they are supported by a lack of precipitation in Argentina.

March Black Sea corn futures in Chicago this week fell by 4 4.5/ton to.283.5 / ton under pressure from lower wheat prices.

As of February 2, Ukraine exported 15.6 million tons of corn in my 2021/22, which is 33% more than last year. Over the next 5 months, it is necessary to export almost 17 million tons of corn.

Purchase prices for corn in Ukrainian ports fell by 5 5-6/ton to 2 265/ton or UAH 8450-8550/ton amid lower world prices and increased supply.

March European corn futures on Paris ' Euronext fell another €2/ton to €249/ton, but dollar futures remained at.285.4/ton due to the strengthening of the euro exchange rate. This supports corn prices in Ukraine.

The rate of corn imports to the EU is falling, at the end of January it amounted to only 3.91 million tons, compared with 4.65 million tons last year. Against the background of lower wheat prices, corn imports will decrease and are unlikely to reach the USDA forecast by the end of the season of 15 million tons. this increases pressure on the prices of Ukrainian corn, which competes with Brazilian corn in the EU market.