Changes in the leadership of the national Bank will increase pressure on the hryvnia

2020-10-06 12:05:27
Machine translation
Changes in the leadership of the national Bank will increase pressure on the hryvnia

Last week the dollar on the interbank market grew steadily, and the national Bank pursued a policy of gradual increase in rate and sold small amounts of currency to avoid spikes.

 

At the meeting of the Board of the national Bank 2 Oct reprimanded and declared mistrust to Catherine Rozhkova and Dmitry Sologub, what are the latest members of the NBU Board from part of the old team Smoliy, who resigned July 1 for "systematic political pressure." Summer was dismissed three Deputy head of the NBU – Cure, Cold and Borisenko.

 

Release Smoliy has led to a sharp jump in the exchange rate of 26.88 with to 27.3 UAH/$, and yesterday the course was 28,41/28,425 UAH/$. To hold the exchange rate, the national Bank yesterday sold 25-45 million $ at the rate 28,41 UAH/$. In the past week, the NBU sold on the interbank market to 51.1 million $, and in General in September currency sales at $ 200 million, exceeded the purchase.

 

Despite the gradual increase of budget revenues, borrowing still can not compensate for the increase of the budget deficit.

 

During 9 months of current year incomes of the budget made 764,8 bln UAH, which is 1.5% or UAH 11.8 bn inferior adjusted in April of the plan, but is 3.3% higher than last year.

 

the deficit of the consolidated budget of Ukraine for 8 months of the year totaled 15,116 billion, compared to 35,367 billion surplus in the same period of 2019. And the amount of funds in the Single Treasury account for the month declined from 45.7 to 21.3 billion UAH (as of 1 October).

 

Experts believe that the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine can grow up to 30 UAH/$, since foreign investors are actively selling the hryvnia and hryvnia government bonds, including through Citibank, to get rid of risky assets in the run-up to presidential elections in the United States.

 

Recovery of business activity in Ukraine increases volumes of export and import. If data import yet, exports in September amounted to 4.2 billion dollars, which is 2.9% more than in September 2019.

 

change of management of the NBU in the nearest future will become an additional factor of pressure on the hryvnia.

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