The reduction in forecast corn production in the EU has led to a new surge in prices
Experts Stratégie Grains has lowered forecasts of production of major grain crops by countries of the EU (including the UK) in 2020/21 MG.
most Significantly lowered the forecast corn crop of from 2.2 million MT to 62.7 million tonnes (64.5 million tonnes in 2019/20 MG) due to low yields in Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and France. The forecast wheat crop is lowered 0.2 million tons to 129,5 million tonnes, and barley – 0.8 million tonnes to 63.8 million tonnes.
compared with September, the Ministry of agriculture of France also lowered its forecast for the corn harvest from 14.1 to 13.5 million tons, which is 6% higher than the harvest of 2019 and 4% average 5-year collection. According to FranceAgrimer, as of October 12, the corn in France is collected on 64% of the area compared to 26% a year ago, which increases supply in the market, however, farmers are holding back sales on the decline in production in other EU countries.
on data On the low yield, the November corn futures on MATIF in Paris for the week increased by 10 €/t to 186,25 €/t or 218,15 $/t
Rise in price of maize in the EU, which is the main buyer of Ukrainian grain, has led to higher prices in the ports of Ukraine up to 205-207 $/t or 6950-7050 UAH/t
promotion of the collection before it's too increased the volume of proposals, as farmers expect prices to rise after the price of wheat, which in the port reached record levels 8000 UAH/t or 235-240 $/t. Traders are forced to raise the purchase price to perform the October contract. During the week Ukraine exported 239 thousand MT of corn, and in General in October of 381 thousand tons
As at 15 October in Ukraine with 2.2 million hectares or 40% of the area harvested 10 million tons of corn with a yield of 4.62 t/ha, which confirms the pessimistic forecasts of the crop at the level of 29-30 mln tonnes of Dry and warm weather next week will intensify maize harvest and delivery to ports.
due to the delay of sowing of soybean and the possible reduction in sowing areas of maize in Brazil, corn prices on the physical markets of the USA and Brazil have already grown to the level of prices for the Ukrainian corn - 210-220 $/t FOB.
the December futures on corn in the United States on Friday declined to 159,2 $/ton amid a sharp reduction in weekly export sales from 46% to 655 thousand tons due to the long weekend in China, which is currently the main buyer.
corn Exports from the United States for the week amounted to 815 thousand tons, and just season to 4.5 million tonnes, 70% higher than last year's pace. Today a report on the maize harvest in the United States, which, according to analysts, threshed on 55% of the area, which increases the psychological pressure on prices.
Precipitation in Brazil and Argentina will accelerate planting, which will reduce the pressure on prices of soybeans and corn. Brazil is almost sold corn, old crop, while Argentine farmers are holding back sales amid rising prices.
the corn Market remains overheated and this week will be under pressure to oil prices due to the strengthening of quarantine in most countries, and data on procurement of China.
