A reduction in the forecast for world wheat production and consumption, and an increase in the estimate of stocks in the USDA report lowered the quotation

In October's supply and demand report, USDA experts lowered their forecasts for world wheat production and consumption in 2024/25 and raised their estimates of opening and ending stocks, sending quotes down 1%, although they rose 2.8-3% overall for the month. .5%.

In comparison with the September estimates, the new wheat balance for 2024/25 MR underwent the following changes:

• The estimate of initial reserves was increased by 0.93 to 266.18 million tons (271.04 million tons in FY 2023/24) due to the increase in reserves in the Russian Federation.
• The global production forecast was reduced by 2.8 to 794.08 million tons (790.38 million tons in 2023/24 MR and 789 million tons in 2022/23 MR), in particular for the EU – by 1 to the lowest since 2007/08 MR level of 123 (134.87) million tons, for the Russian Federation - by 1 to 82 (91.5) million tons (although SovEkon estimates the harvest at 81.5 million tons, and MSG of the Russian Federation - at 83 million tons), for India - by 0.7 to 113.3 (110.55) million tons, Brazil – by 0.5 to 9 (8.1) million tons, the USA – by 0.3 to 53.7 (49.1) million tons. At the same time, the forecast for Ukraine increased by 0.6 to 22.9 (23) million tons, while the Ministry of Agriculture estimates the harvest at 21.8 million tons.
• The global consumption forecast was reduced by 2.36 to 802.54 (797.81) million tons, primarily for India and Afghanistan.
• The estimate of world exports was reduced by 0.69 to 215.82 (221.32) million tons, in particular for the EU - by 1.5 to 30 (37) million tons, while for Ukraine it was increased by 1 to 16 (18.4 ) million tons with the agreed volume of 16.2 million tons in the Memorandum.
• The estimate of world imports was increased by 0.5 to 210.77 (221.8) million tons, in particular for Brazil – by 0.5 to 6 (6.6) million tons.
• The forecast of global ending stocks was increased by 0.5 to 257.72 (266.18) million tons, while analysts expected a decrease in the estimate to 256.1 million tons. The estimate of reserves was increased for the EU and the Russian Federation by 0.5 million tons, but lowered for the USA by 0.4 to 22.1 million tons, which will exceed last year's figure by 17% and will continue to put pressure on the prices of American wheat.

According to the new report, December wheat futures fell:

• by 0.8% to $220/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+3.5% compared to the data after the release of the September report),
• by 1% to $222.12/t - for HRW hard winter wheat in Kansas City (+3.1%).
• by 1% to $236.54/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (+3.5%),
• by 1% to €229/t or $250.5/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (+2.8%).

A gradual rise in Russian and Ukrainian wheat prices is boosting demand for wheat in the US, while the November-December harvests in Australia and Argentina will increase competition on the world market amid weak import demand this season.