The increase in US soybean oil inventories to record levels has sent its prices down

As a result of the tariffs imposed by Trump, soybean exports from the US in the first half of the 2025/26 MY decreased by 11.4 million tons compared to the previous season, which led to increased soybean processing and an increase in domestic prices for soybean oil.

According to estimates by the Oil World agency (Germany), in the 2025/26 MY, the volume of soybean processing in the US could reach a record 71 million tons, which would significantly exceed the 66.5 million tons in the 2024/25 season.

According to NOPA, soybean processing volumes in February decreased by 6% compared to January, but amounted to a record for the month 208.8 million bushels. The decrease is due solely to the fewer days in February, as daily processing volumes increased compared to January from 7.15 to a record 7.45 million bushels/day (6.35 million bushels/day in February 2025).

In total, 36.3 million tons of soybeans were processed in the US in September-February 2025/26 MY (33.5 million tons for the same period in 2024/25 MY and 31.2 million tons on average over 5 years).

Due to record production volumes and low demand from the biofuel industry, soybean oil stocks in the US rose in February to their highest level since May 2018 (+39% year-on-year) and exceeded the February 2025 level by 5-6 million tons.

May soybean oil futures on the Chicago SWOT have risen 50% year-to-date to $1,455/t (15% in 2025 and 33% in 2026). Initially, quotes were supported by hopes that the Trump administration would increase biodiesel quotas and reduce subsidies for biodiesel made from imported oils by 50%, which has boosted demand for soybean oil. Recently, quotes have been rising in line with oil prices, despite rising oil inventories. In addition, Argentina and Brazil are increasing their soybean oil supply as their soybean harvests mature, and it is currently trading at $1,150-1,220/t FOB.

As previously reported, soybean meal production in the USA, Argentina and Brazil (the top 3 producing countries) in the 2025/26 MY will increase by 1.8 million tons compared to the previous season to 68.9 million tons.