Increased supply puts pressure on wheat quotes, but they are supported by export restrictions from the Black Sea region

On Friday, USDA experts significantly raised crop forecasts in Australia and Canada and increased the forecast for global wheat production and ending stocks in the 2026/27 MY , which increased pressure on quotes, which have been falling for two weeks in a row.

Wheat prices on US exchanges fell another 1.2-1.8% in the week, but are still trading 2.9-4.6% higher than a month ago. The low export rates indicate that importers are expecting increased supplies from Australia and Argentina or the opening of Black Sea ports and a sharp drop in prices.

During the week, December US wheat futures fell:

• by 1.8% to $265.3/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+4.6% per month),
• by 1.3% to $291.2/t - for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (+2.9%),
• by 1.2% to $270.5/t - for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+4.5%),
• by 0.2% to €240.5/t or $277.8/t for soft wheat on Euronext in Paris (+1.7%).

Wheat exports from the US during September 3-10 decreased by 5.9% compared to the previous week to 456.7 thousand tons (which is 39.78% lower than the corresponding figure last year), and in total since the beginning of the 2026/27 MY amounted to 5.676 million tons, which is 27.8% lower than last year's rates.

In Ukraine, due to the increase in shipments, the logistics of rail deliveries to the ports of Poland or Romania are deteriorating, so the cost of transportation is increasing, which affects export demand for wheat.

During the week, export purchase prices for wheat in Danube ports remained at the level of $160-170/t or 8000-8500 UAH/t for food wheat and 7500-8000 UAH/t or 150-155 $/t for feed wheat, while demand prices on an FCA basis - loaded into a wagon for export - for food wheat fell from 7000-7300 UAH/t to 6000-6800 UAH/t, and for feed wheat they were almost absent.

Prices for food wheat delivered to Constanta (Romania) remain at $250-255/t, but queues for acceptance are growing, as Romanian and Moldovan wheat is also being delivered to the port.

Processors in Ukraine buy mainly high-quality food wheat at a price of 6,500-7,000 UAH/t with delivery to the mill.

Wheat exports from Ukraine for 14 days of September amounted to 410 thousand tons (1.34 million tons for the same period last year), and in total since the beginning of the season, exports have reached 2.09 million tons compared to 3.99 million tons last year.

After the attacks on the Novorossiysk seaport on August 12, three deep-sea grain terminals: Novorossiysk Bread Products Plant (NKHP), Novorossiysk Grain Terminal (NZT) and KSK (operator - DK "Delo"), with a combined transshipment capacity of 26 million tons per year, stopped shipments for 1-4 months. Due to the increase in freight and insurance costs, prices for Russian wheat fell to $200-210/ton on a FOB - Black Sea basis, so we expect an increase in the supply of Russian wheat as the terminals are restored. The ban on grain transit through the Baltic countries may also increase pressure on domestic wheat prices in the Russian Federation.

The increase in supply will continue to put pressure on world prices and negatively affect domestic wheat prices in Ukraine.