Increased supply of new crop collapses quotes and increases pressure on corn prices in Ukraine

In the US, dry and warm weather over the past two weeks is helping to accelerate corn harvest and confirming forecasts of increased corn production, which is increasing pressure on quotes in Chicago and on world prices.

 

According to NASS USDA, as of October 18, corn in the US has been harvested on 44% of the area (+11% per week), which is 8% lower than the 5-year average of 52%. Dry weather with temperatures of 15-23 degrees is forecast in the US “corn belt” for the next 7-10 days, which will allow for accelerated harvesting.

 

December corn futures in Chicago fell by 3.6% to $182.4/t in a week (-15.8% in a month), completely erasing the speculative growth of August and September.

 

World prices are also being pressured by weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina that are very favorable for corn planting.

 

The decline in Chicago quotes increased the pressure on quotes in the EU. During the week, March corn futures in Paris fell by 4.6% to €268.5/t or $301.6/t (+1.4% month-on-month), and November futures (which expire on October 25) fell by 3.9% to €291.5/t, despite new forecasts of a reduced harvest.

 

Expana analysts have lowered their forecast for EU corn production in 2026/27 from 46.2 million tonnes to 44.9 million tonnes, the lowest level in 36 years, due to the drought, compared to their September estimates. EU feed corn use is expected to fall by 8 million tonnes compared to the 5-year average due to increased wheat use, but imports of Ukrainian corn to the EU could rise to 11 million tonnes compared to 9.1 million tonnes in 2025/26.

 

Increased demand will support Ukrainian producers during the period of the blockade of sea exports and keep domestic purchase prices from collapsing, but due to the delay in supplies from Ukraine, European buyers may increase the import of significant consignments of corn from the USA and Brazil.

 

Corn exports from Ukraine for 19 days of October amounted to only 138 thousand tons (compared to 356 thousand tons in October 2025), and in total since the beginning of the season reached 2.06 million tons (1.271 million tons for the same period last year) due to active shipments in July and August.

 

As of October 19, 5.363 million tons of corn were threshed from 911.8 thousand hectares or 20% of the area in Ukraine, with an average yield of 5.88 tons/ha (last year, 4.913 million tons were harvested from 21% of the area with a yield of 5.49 tons/ha).

 

During the week, corn purchase prices in Ukraine remained at UAH 4,500–5,000/t on EXW-elevator terms, but purchases were conducted by a limited number of buyers. At the same time, corn demand prices with delivery to Danube ports fell by $10/t to $150–158/t, and prices in hryvnia fell even more due to delays in VAT refunds to traders.

 

Demand prices for corn delivered to western terminals in October-November fell to $160-165/t, but prices delivered to the port of Constanta remain at $245-250/t.

 

Prolonged rainfall in Ukraine is delaying the corn harvest, which is currently limiting supply, but dry and warm weather is forecast for next week, which will speed up the harvest and increase supply, although some farmers plan to postpone the harvest until spring.