The increase in forecasts of the new harvest lowers the price of wheat

Global prices of wheat continued to decline under the pressure of increasing forecasts of the new crop and decreasing demand. Demand for old crop wheat falls as traders are increasingly interested in a new grain.

Recent precipitation has slightly improved the condition of grain, but not enough to produce a crop the same as last year. As a result, the experts of the IGC report in April reduced compared to March estimates forecast world production of wheat in 2020/21 MG with 768,5 to 764,4 million tonnes, which will exceed the crop of last season is 762,1 million tonnes For the EU production forecast reduced to 132,2 of 131.7 million tonnes, India from 108 to 107 million tonnes, Russia – from 80 to 79 million tonnes, Ukraine from 27 to 26.5 million tons, USA – from 50.6 to 50.4 million tons.

Forecast world exports of wheat also decreased with 179,9 to 176,7 million tons, in particular for Russia, from 38.4 to 37.4 million tons, EU – 27 to 27.8 million tonnes, Australia – from 14 to 13 million tons.

Evaluation world stocks of wheat increased from 283,2 to depth 288.7 million tonnes, in particular to Australia, from 5.7 to 6.4 million tonnes, Russia – from 9.8 to 11.2 million t, China – s 133 to 133,6 million tonnes, India from 27.7 to 28.5 mln t. at the same time stocks will be reduced in the EU from 13 to 12.4 million tons, USA – from 23.4 to 23.2 million tons, in Ukraine – from 1.2 to 1 million tons.

the European Commission has lowered the forecast of production of soft wheat in EU 2020/21 MG 4% to 125,8 million tons, but increased its export forecast by 5% to 28 million tonnes. MG for 2019/20 the forecast of exports increased by 1.8 million tons to 31.8 million tons For the week, the EU exported 263,8 thousand tons of wheat, and from the beginning of the season - 28.8 million tonnes, which is 64% higher than last year's pace.

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• the September wheat futures on the MATIF fell by 0.25 €/ton to month minimum 184,25 €/t or 200,871 $/t

the price of wheat in the United States falls due to the deterioration of relations with China and under pressure from the improving the condition of winter crops and active sowing of spring wheat.

the week number of crops of winter wheat in good or excellent condition increased NA1% to 55%, while a year ago the figure was 64%. Spring wheat sown on 3 may, 29% of squares compared to 19% last year and 43% on average for 5 years at that date.

the July wheat futures in the U.S. remained at the same level:

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175,26 $/t for solid winter HRW wheat in Kansas city

186,66 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

• 189,67 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago

For the week, the United States exported 535,7 thousand MT of wheat mainly from the North Pacific coast to Asia, and just season shipped 23 million tons, which is 5% ahead of last year's pace.

Canada per week exported 307 thousand tons of wheat, and from the beginning of the season and 11.5 million tonnes, which is 12% lower than the level of last year.

the Ukraine for a week shipped 386 thousand tons of wheat, and in General in the season of 19.08 million tonnes, which is 33% higher than last year's level. Within the framework agreed between the government and traders quota of 20.2 million tonnes to export free be only 1.2 million tonnes Traders, almost stopped the purchase of wheat old crop, so prices in the ports declined, followed by processors of lowered purchase prices by 50-100 UAH/t to 6100-6300 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.