Rising U.S. exports support soybean prices, but favorable weather in Argentina and Brazil adds pressure on quotes

The complex global soybean balance sheet this season continues to weigh on the market, so improved weather in South America has accelerated the decline in prices.

In central Brazil, the rainy season has begun, which has allowed sowing to be accelerated. According to AgRural data, as of October 17, 18% of the planned area was sown with soybeans (30% last year), and only 10 days remained until the end of the optimal sowing period.

Rains are also coming in Argentina, reducing dry spells and improving conditions for soybean planting, which will begin in November. In FY 2024/25, the country is expected to increase the area under soybeans by 7.2% to 17.8 million hectares, reducing the area under corn, which will further increase the pressure on soybean quotes.

During the week, November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 2% to $360/t (-6.1% for the month, -29% for the year).

As of October 20, soybeans in the USA were harvested on 81% of the area (67% on average over 5 years).

A good harvest and low prices contribute to the growth of soybean exports from the USA, which for October 11-17 increased compared to the previous week by 27.6% to 2.43 million tons (of which 1.687 million tons went to China), and in general in the season reached 7.896 million tons, which is 2.9% lower than last year's pace.

In September, China increased soybean imports from the USA to 1.71 million tons, which is 13 times higher than the 132.68 thousand tons imported in September 2023.

In Ukraine, as of October 18, 5.2 million tons of soybeans were harvested from 2.3 million hectares or 88% of the area with a yield of 2.26 tons/ha.

During the week, export purchase prices for GMO soybeans in Black Sea ports remained at 18,000-18,200 UAH/t or 380-385 $/t, while processors reduced prices by 200-300 UAH/t to 18,000-18,200 UAH/t with delivery to the factory.

Export purchase prices for non-GMO soybeans in Black Sea ports also remained at $455-465/t or UAH 21,800-22,200/t, which allowed processors to drop prices by UAH 200-300/t to UAH 21,500-22,000/t with delivery to the factory

Soybean prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from a significant increase in supplies from the US and acceleration of planting in South America.