FAS USDA experts' increase in China corn production forecast will increase pressure on world prices

According to the forecast of FAS USDA experts, in the 2026/27 MY corn production in China will increase by 1.6% compared to the previous season from 301.2 to 306 million tons due to the expansion of sowing areas and favorable weather, although in some regions the yield potential was limited by the heat at the end of the growing season.

As of October 15, 70% of China's autumn grain crops have been threshed, and the main autumn crop is corn.

According to the USDA FAS forecast, domestic corn consumption in the country in the 2026/27 MY will also increase by 1 million tons compared to the previous season to 322 million tons, of which 240 million tons will go to feed, and the remaining 82 million tons to food and industrial needs and seeds. At the same time, corn imports will amount to 6 million tons, and ending stocks will decrease by 10 million tons to 165 million tons.

The increased supply of new crop corn is putting pressure on domestic prices and forcing traders and feed producers to slow down purchases in anticipation of further price declines.

In addition, due to the active use of alternative, cheaper components in formulations, in particular wheat, barley, and sorghum, the share of corn in diets decreased during 2026 from 47% to 29%.

About 2.4 million tons of imported barley and sorghum have accumulated in southern ports. China is expected to import about 7 million tons of feed grains in the fourth quarter of 2026, which will increase competition between corn and alternative crops.

Demand for corn is also being reduced by the difficult situation in livestock farming, in particular low meat prices and the unprofitability of pig farming.

Falling demand for corn from China will increase pressure on prices in the US and Brazil, which will accordingly lower prices in the EU and Ukraine.