Preservation of precipitation deficit in Brazil and the Black Sea region supports the growth of grain prices

Lack of precipitation in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia is holding back winter wheat planting, while dry conditions in central Brazil are delaying corn and soybean planting. This has led to a speculative rise in stock market prices in recent weeks.

Brazil's southern regions received rain this week, which will help planting, but central areas remain too dry. In the state of Mato Grosso, short-term rainfall is expected next week, but it is not enough to overcome the drought, so farmers are delaying sowing until more rains.

The west and north of Argentina are also suffering from drought, which is delaying the planting of corn and worsening the condition of winter wheat. A little rain is forecast for next week, but it won't solve the problem.

The western regions of Ukraine are receiving precipitation, while the eastern regions and the south-west of Russia have been suffering from drought for several months, which prevents the active sowing of winter wheat. Already sown winter rapeseed and wheat are in poor condition, which reduces the potential of the 2025 harvest.

As of September 23, only 20% of the planned (878,000 ha) of winter wheat was sown in Ukraine. In Russia, on September 20, 8.3 million hectares (45% of the plan) were sown with winter grains, which is the lowest figure since 2013.

During the next week, significant precipitation in arid regions of Ukraine and Russia is not expected to increase pressure on the markets.

In the U.S., this week saw rain in the Midwest and light precipitation in the Plains, delaying the harvest of corn and soybeans somewhat, but improving the condition of winter wheat. Dry and warm weather is forecast next week, which will facilitate a quick harvest with good quality and yield indicators.

Conditions remain favorable across the Canadian Prairies to complete harvest of spring wheat, canola, soybeans and corn. Absence of significant rainfall over the next week will speed up harvesting and reduce crop losses.

Heavy rain and winds are expected in Europe this week and next week, particularly in France, Germany and the UK, which will improve soil moisture but delay the harvesting of late crops and winter wheat plantings.

Australia's growing regions will receive sufficient rainfall to improve crop condition and yield potential for wheat, barley and canola.