Trump's statements about tariffs and forecasts of increased corn and wheat plantings in the US caused quotes to fall by 2.2-3.6%
President Trump changed his statements on the timing of the tariffs, and the USDA released its first forecast of sowing areas for 2025, after which wheat and corn prices fell by 2.2-3.6% and completely lost the speculative increase of the last month, caused by adverse weather in the US and South America in February.
Yesterday, Trump said he was wrong and tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China will take effect on March 4, while other tariffs will be imposed in April.
At the Outlook Forum, USDA experts released the first forecasts for the sown area in the United States, according to which the area under corn will increase by 3.4 million acres compared to last year to 94 million acres, under wheat by 0.9 million acres to 47 million acres, while under soybeans will decrease by 3.1 million acres to 84 million acres.
March futures fell yesterday:
- by 3.6% to $200.9/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (0% per month),
- by 2.5% to $209.9/t – for durum winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+1.8%),
- by 2.2% to $215.7/t – for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-1.7%),
- by 1.1% to €220.5/t or $229/t – for wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris (-1.9%),
- by 3% to $183/t – for corn in Chicago (-4.5%),
- by 0.1% to $375.8/t – for soybeans in Chicago (-2.2%).
Export sales for the period February 14-20 were lower than market expectations, which further increased pressure on prices.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, during the week in Argentina, the number of corn crops in excellent condition increased by 2% to 21%, and in poor condition decreased by 1% to 29%. The number of soybean crops in excellent condition increased by 7% to 24%, and in poor condition decreased by 1% to 34%.
A sharp drop in quotations on world stock exchanges will lead to a significant decrease in wheat and corn prices in Ukraine, where the cost of grain remains higher than in the USA and South America.
