Trump's statements supported soybean quotes in Chicago
November soybean futures in Chicago rose another 1% to $376/t yesterday, up 2.2% in two days, amid President Trump's statements that at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit he intends to raise the issue of Beijing's refusal to purchase American soybeans with Chinese President Xi Jinping. "Soybeans will be a major topic of discussion at the meeting scheduled in four weeks," he said, accusing China of not buying soybeans for "purely negotiating reasons" that are hurting American farmers.
The US president has also proposed using tariff revenue to fund aid to farmers hurt by China's refusal to buy American soybeans. According to the Wall Street Journal, the US government is considering a $10-14 billion aid package for farmers.
According to Oil World, the US will export only 40 million tons of soybeans in 2025/26, the lowest level in 13 years. Despite the forecast record volumes of shipments outside China (which will amount to 37 million tons), only 3 million tons of soybeans from the US will be delivered to the Chinese market.
According to Oil World estimates, South American countries increased soybean exports in September by 2.3-2.6 million tons compared to the same period last year. In particular, Argentina increased soybean exports from 0.3 to 2.3 million tons, of which more than 95% were shipped to China. Brazil increased soybean exports from 6.1 to 6.5 million tons, and oilseed meals from 1.81 to 2.05 million tons, which indicates high processing volumes.
According to estimates released on Wednesday by consulting company StoneX, Brazil, the world's largest soybean producer, will harvest 178.6 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/26 MY, which will be 5% higher than the previous season due to the expansion of sown areas and increased yields.
If soybean planting in Brazil takes place under optimal conditions, like last year, China will continue to hold back soybean purchases from the US in anticipation of a new record harvest in Brazil.
