Prolonged rains in Ukraine delay harvest and cause sunflower prices to rise

The decline in sunflower oil quotes for delivery in November-December and the increase in seed offers are putting pressure on the domestic market, but the weather factor is currently supporting sunflower prices in Ukraine.

For the second week in a row, significant rainfall in the western and northern regions has halted field work, leading to poor crop quality and a risk of yield loss.

As of October 2, only 58.7% of the sunflower area in Ukraine had been threshed - 5.5 million tons with an average yield of 1.83 tons/ha, while last year on this date 8 million tons (79% of the area) were harvested with a yield of 2.05 tons/ha.

Due to excess moisture in the west of the country, an increase in the acid number in sunflower harvested after the rains is being recorded - up to 4–8%, which is prompting processors to more actively buy up already harvested batches.

Over the week, sunflower demand prices in Ukraine increased by 500–1,000 UAH/t, to 27,500–28,000 UAH/t or $580–600/t excluding VAT (for 50% oil content) with delivery to the factory.

Amid delays in deliveries and concerns about a reduced harvest, sunflower oil prices continue to rise, by $10–20/t, to $1,200–1,210/t for delivery to ports in October. For comparison, Russian oil is holding at $1,170–1,180/t FOB.

Sunflower oil quotes for delivery to India have increased to $1,290-1,300/t CIF Mumbai, providing additional market support. At the same time, palm and soybean oil prices remain stable at around $1,050/t and $1,150/t, respectively, which may limit further increases in sunflower oil prices in the coming weeks.